海吉亚医疗(6078.HK):资本开支高峰已过 内生发展与股东回报并重

Core Viewpoint - The macro environment and medical insurance payment reform pose challenges to the growth of the comprehensive hospital industry in the short term, as reflected in the company's performance in the first half of 2025. However, the opening of new hospital branches in the second half of 2025 is expected to provide new growth momentum, with revenue growth anticipated to improve compared to the first half of 2025. The company has also shown a commitment to shareholder returns, with consistent stock repurchases and no share reductions by founders since the IPO [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 247 million yuan, down 35.76%. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.40 yuan. The board has decided not to recommend any interim dividend for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.57%, a decline of 5.19 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increase in fixed costs as a percentage of revenue resulting from the revenue decline [2]. - The core hospital business generated revenue of 1.94 billion yuan, down 15.8% year-on-year, with inpatient revenue at 1.22 billion yuan (down 18.4%) and outpatient revenue at 722 million yuan (down 11.1%) [2][3]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a significant improvement in operational quality, with net operating cash flow reaching 456 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, and a net cash ratio of 185.4%. Capital expenditures have peaked at 242 million yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, leading to a substantial increase in free cash flow to 214 million yuan, up 1611.2% [3]. - The company has reduced administrative and non-medical staff by 67 people (5.6% year-on-year) through AI and information technology optimization, indicating a focus on refined management [2][3]. Strategic Development - The company emphasizes the core oncology discipline and is enhancing its technical capabilities to align with DRG/DIP reform requirements. It has signed contracts with nearly 50 commercial insurance companies and is expanding international services for oncology treatment [3][4]. - The company currently operates 16 hospitals, with new projects in Wuxi, Qufu, and Kaiyuan expected to open in 2025, providing a solid foundation for future growth [3][4]. Shareholder Returns - The company has prioritized shareholder returns, with founders and associated parties never reducing their holdings since the IPO and having increased their stakes 22 times. Since September 2024, the company has repurchased and canceled 13.0252 million shares, representing 2.06% of the total shares before cancellation, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term value [4][5]. Profit Forecast - Due to the performance pressure in the first half of 2025, the company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 3.785 billion yuan, 4.144 billion yuan, and 4.542 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14.8%, 9.47%, and 9.6%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 490 million yuan, 530 million yuan, and 592 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.12%, 8.21%, and 11.60% [5].