Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the US dollar is largely attributed to the significant depreciation of the Japanese yen due to political changes in Japan, despite the overall gloomy outlook for the dollar as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The US productivity growth is projected to remain strong, with a 1.6% increase in 2023, significantly higher than the OECD average of 0.6% and contrasting with a decline of 0.9% in the Eurozone [5]. - The second quarter of 2023 saw an annualized productivity growth rate of 3.3% in the US, with expectations that this could rise to 5.0% in the third quarter [8]. - The potential for a rising trend in productivity growth is linked to advancements in artificial intelligence, with the US expected to capture the largest share of the productivity benefits due to its leading position in AI, strong intellectual capital, and a flexible labor market [9][10]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Investment Climate - The report suggests that artificially lowering real interest rates could lead to economic overheating, especially as productivity improvements and profitability are already driving robust economic growth [12]. - The current US policy interest rates, adjusted for inflation, remain high by global standards, and significant aggressive rate cuts are unlikely in the short term [12]. - Concerns about the US policy's recklessness and the potential for an AI bubble are acknowledged, but the lack of attractive alternatives for capital outflow from the US is emphasized [15]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite prevalent bearish sentiment towards the dollar, the situation may not be as straightforward, as the US remains a dominant player in the global economy, and the potential for a significant alternative investment option is limited [15]. - The comparison to the internet bubble of the 1990s indicates that the current market dynamics may still be in the early stages of development, suggesting that the outlook for the dollar could be more complex than commonly perceived [15].
美元已见底？渣打援引三大理由有力论证牛市情景！