三季度净利预计翻倍，盐湖股份全年盈利有望突破60亿

Core Viewpoint - After hitting a low in profit growth in the first quarter, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) has begun to release its performance on a quarterly basis, with significant profit increases expected in the upcoming quarters [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 4.3 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters, with the third quarter expected to yield 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 93.77% to 136.83% [3][4]. - Quarterly net profits for the first three quarters are reported as 1.145 billion yuan, 1.375 billion yuan, and an estimated 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan [8]. Market Dynamics - The price of potassium fertilizer, the company's main product, has been rising due to supply constraints from Russia and Belarus, coupled with seasonal demand increases in major agricultural regions [7]. - The ex-factory price of potassium chloride (60% powder) in Qinghai is reported to have risen from 2,550 yuan/ton at the end of 2024 to 3,200 yuan/ton in mid-July, stabilizing around 3,100 yuan/ton since then [7]. Sales and Production Capacity - The company has a current production capacity of 5 million tons of potassium chloride per year, with sales in the first three quarters totaling 2.86 million tons, indicating potential for increased sales in the fourth quarter [11]. - Forecasts suggest that fourth-quarter potassium chloride sales could range from 1.64 million to 2.14 million tons, a significant increase from 1.08 million tons in the third quarter [11]. Lithium Production - The company recently launched a new integrated lithium salt project with a capacity of 40,000 tons per year, which is expected to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year [12][13]. - The new lithium capacity is fully owned by the company, allowing it to retain all profits generated from this production [13]. Future Outlook - The overall profit growth trend is expected to continue into the fourth quarter, supported by favorable potassium prices and potential increases in sales volume [9][10]. - The lithium market is anticipated to recover, with historical price fluctuations indicating significant potential for profit increases in the future [14].