JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-15 01:10Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech indicates a strong possibility of a rate cut in October, highlighting significant downward risks in the U.S. labor market and suggesting a potential end to the quantitative tightening policy [1][2]. Group 1: Powell's Speech Insights - Powell emphasized that the U.S. labor market shows considerable weakness, with both supply and demand for labor declining significantly [2]. - He warned that delaying action could increase the risks associated with loosening monetary policy [2]. - Powell hinted at the potential cessation of the quantitative tightening policy, as initial signs of tightening in financial markets have emerged [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations - JPMorgan's report stated that Powell's comments have solidified market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 28-29 [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has reached 97.3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [3]. - Peter Cardillo from Spartan Capital Securities noted that while Powell acknowledges a robust economic foundation, he also recognizes existing issues, preparing the market for a series of rate cuts without implying they are guaranteed [3].