海天味业，匆匆忙忙跌跌撞撞这五年

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of previously high-performing stocks, particularly focusing on Haitian Flavoring and Food Co., which has transitioned from a market darling to a struggling entity, highlighting the lessons learned from this shift [1][2]. Company Overview - Haitian Flavoring and Food Co. was once revered in the A-share market, known for its soy sauce and other condiments, achieving a market share of 13.2% in China and 6.2% globally by 2024 [3][7]. - The company's stock price surged from 13.17 yuan in September 2015 to 85.95 yuan in September 2020, marking a 5.5-fold increase over five years [4]. Performance Metrics - The company experienced significant growth during 2015-2020, with revenue growth rates not less than 15% and net profit growth rates around 20% [8]. - Return on Equity (ROE) remained above 30%, with sales gross margins over 40% and net profit margins between 22% and 28% during this period [8][19]. - However, since its peak in 2021, the stock price has dropped nearly 70%, attributed to declining performance and valuation contraction [17][20]. Valuation Analysis - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio peaked at 112, which was unsustainable given the company's growth prospects, leading to a current PE of 33.4 [20][22]. - The company's net profit growth has slowed significantly, with annualized growth rates below 3% from 2022 to 2025 [19]. Market Position and Strategy - Despite the challenges, Haitian Flavoring still holds a leading position in the condiment market, with a market share concentration of only 10.9% among the top five companies, indicating potential for growth [24]. - The company aims to enhance market share through strategies like quality improvement, overseas expansion, and channel penetration, although past performance in these areas has been mixed [25][29]. Lessons Learned - The case of Haitian Flavoring illustrates that even strong companies can face significant declines if market conditions change and if valuations become detached from realistic growth expectations [33][34]. - Investors should be cautious of anchoring their decisions to past stock prices and should focus on current valuations and market logic [38].