Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has upgraded J&T Express-W (01519) earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 11% to reflect the growth in parcel volume in Southeast Asia, with a forecast increase of 65%, while lowering the parcel volume growth forecast for China to mid-single digits [1] Group 1: Earnings and Ratings - The rating for J&T Express has been upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" due to the defensive growth potential in Southeast Asia and new markets amid uncertainties in US-China trade [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 10 to HKD 11 [1] Group 2: Parcel Volume Growth - In Q3, J&T Express reported a total parcel volume growth of 23% year-on-year, reaching 7.677 billion parcels, with Southeast Asia showing exceptional performance, growing 78.7% to approximately 2 billion parcels, exceeding management and Daiwa's expectations [1] - The parcel volume in China and other new markets grew by 10.4% and 48% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Southeast Asian express delivery market is entering a new development phase due to intensified platform competition and market share consolidation [1] - J&T Express is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in this new growth phase due to its market positioning and cost competitiveness [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Outlook - In the Chinese market, the industry is experiencing a slowdown in parcel volume growth, which has increased unit costs despite a quarterly improvement in average prices [1] - Management maintains a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook for the domestic business for the year, considering the ongoing optimization of the domestic customer structure [1]
大和：一举升极兔速递-W评级至“买入” 上调目标价至11港元