Core Viewpoint - Hai Jiayi Medical (06078) has issued a profit warning, expecting a revenue decline of approximately 15% to 17% and a net profit decline of about 34% to 39% for the mid-year period [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hai Jiayi Medical reported revenue of 1.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47%, and a net profit of 246 million RMB, down 36.18% [3][4] - The company's inpatient services revenue was 1.22 billion RMB (down 18.4% year-on-year) and outpatient services revenue was 722 million RMB (down 11.2% year-on-year) [4] Impact of DRG Payment Reform - The implementation of the DRG (Diagnosis-Related Group) payment reform is a significant factor contributing to the company's financial downturn, shifting the payment model from fee-for-service to bundled payments based on disease types [3][6] - This reform has led to a compression of profit margins for private hospitals, including Hai Jiayi Medical, as it incentivizes cost control rather than revenue maximization [3][6] Market Dynamics - Despite the financial challenges, the demand for hospital services remains stable, with the number of patients treated reaching 2.2 million, unchanged from the previous year [4][6] - The aging population in China, projected to reach over 400 million by 2035, and the expected growth in the oncology market present a favorable long-term outlook for Hai Jiayi Medical [7] Capital Expenditure and Future Strategy - The company has indicated a reduction in capital expenditures, with a current spending of 242 million RMB, down 28.5% year-on-year, and plans to focus on acquisitions rather than building new hospitals in the short term [5][6] - The management believes that the company will eventually see a rebound in revenue and profit as it navigates through the current downturn and capitalizes on new capacity and market concentration [6][7] Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Hai Jiayi Medical's stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 87.95% from its peak of 109.43 HKD in 2021 to around 13 HKD, with a static PE ratio dropping to 13.03 times [1][8] - Recent trading activity shows low trading volumes and a bearish sentiment, with the stock price remaining below the average cost, indicating a potential for further downside before any recovery [8][11]
股价跌去近九成后，基本盘稳定的海吉亚医疗来到估值反转前夜？