Core Viewpoint - The company "小菜园" is a leading brand in the mass casual dining sector, focusing on "New Huai Cuisine" with a price range of 50-70 yuan, holding a 0.2% market share in 2023, ranking among the top three in the Chinese casual dining chain market [1][2]. Industry Overview - The mass casual dining market in China reached a scale of 36,187 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 88.7% of the Chinese dining market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2023 to 2028 [2]. - The community dining segment grew from 11.4 trillion yuan in 2018 to 13.7 trillion yuan in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028 [2]. Company Strategy - 小菜园 targets the 50-100 yuan price segment, aligning with consumer trends for quality and value, while maintaining strict control over ingredient quality [2]. - The company employs a centralized procurement, central processing, and cold chain distribution model to create cost barriers, with individual store investments ranging from 1.3 to 1.7 million yuan and a payback period shorter than the industry average [2]. - The brand utilizes a "现炒现做" (freshly cooked) approach combined with standardization, covering dining in-store, takeout, and community outlets [2]. Expansion Plans - The company plans to accelerate the opening of 小菜园 stores, targeting 800 stores by the end of 2025 and 1,000 by the end of 2026, with long-term projections suggesting a potential of 2,050 stores [3]. - The sub-brand "菜手" focuses on community dining with a price range of 20-40 yuan, leveraging the supply chain of 小菜园 to fill the low-price market gap and enhance overall penetration [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 750 million yuan, 922 million yuan, and 1.132 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of 0.64, 0.78, and 0.96 yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16X, 13X, and 11X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].
小菜园(0999.HK)投资价值分析报告：大众餐饮高性价比标杆 供应链提效稳质价