Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express reported strong growth in package volume for Q3 2025, driven by increased e-commerce penetration in Southeast Asia and strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms [1][2] Group 1: Package Volume Growth - In Q3 2025, the total package volume reached 7.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [1] - Southeast Asia package volume was 2.0 billion, growing by 78.7% year-on-year [1] - China package volume reached 5.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [1] - New market package volume hit 100 million, reflecting a 47.9% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Market Share - The e-commerce package volume in Southeast Asia for the first half of 2025 reached 9.84 billion, up 32.2% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in the region [1] - Jitu's market share in Southeast Asia reached 32.8% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its non-e-commerce package offerings, leveraging its network advantages and cost efficiency [1] Group 3: New Market Expansion - In Q3 2025, new market package volume reached 100 million, a 47.9% year-on-year increase, with a total of 270 million packages in the first three quarters, up 30.6% year-on-year [2] - The company has established 35 transfer centers, over 1,900 outlets, more than 200 trunk transport vehicles, and 11 automated sorting lines in new markets [2] - Jitu is deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms like TikTok, Temu, Shein, and Mercado Libre in new markets [2] Group 4: Profitability and Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of $368 million, $592 million, and $853 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 83.91%, 60.77%, and 43.94% [3] - The price war in the Chinese market has impacted profitability, leading to a lower PE valuation reference [3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, with a comparable PS valuation of 1.42x for 2025, higher than Jitu's PS valuation [3]
极兔速递-W(01519.HK)点评：东南亚维持高景气 新市场打开新增长曲线