阿斯麦：最坏时期已过

Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q3 2025 financial results indicate a stabilization in performance, with revenue and gross margin meeting company guidance, while the focus shifts to order trends and future operational guidance [7][8][40]. Revenue & Gross Margin - Q3 2025 revenue reached €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, slightly below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][28]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, near the upper end of the company's guidance range (50%-52%), supported by an increase in service revenue [1][32]. Expenses & Profit - R&D and sales management expenses remained stable, with net profit for the quarter at €2.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, driven by improved gross margin [2][38]. - The net profit margin for the quarter was 28.3% [2][38]. Business Performance - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 27.3% to €1.96 billion, indicating a shift in revenue composition [3][55]. - The revenue split between lithography systems and services was approximately 70:30, with lithography systems remaining the core of ASML's performance [3][42]. Regional Revenue - Mainland China was the largest revenue source, contributing 42% or approximately €3.16 billion, significantly exceeding the company's previous expectation of 25% [4][56]. - Taiwan contributed around €2.26 billion, accounting for 30% of revenue, reflecting strong demand from TSMC [4][56]. Order Metrics - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, a decrease of €1.4 billion from the previous quarter but better than market expectations of €4.9 billion [5][9]. - The sustained net orders above €5 billion indicate a recovery in customer confidence [5][9]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with a gross margin of 51%-53%, both above market expectations [6][12]. Market Context - The current operational phase for ASML is transitioning from a low point to recovery, driven by increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry, particularly in storage and AI-related investments [14][40]. - The positive outlook for major clients like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel is expected to boost ASML's performance as they increase capital spending [22][25]. Competitive Position - ASML remains the sole provider of EUV lithography systems, holding over 80% market share, which solidifies its investment rationale [23][60]. - The introduction of High-NA EUV systems is anticipated to further enhance ASML's market position and pricing power [24][60].