ASML Holding(US:ASML) 3 6 Ke·2025-10-16 00:34Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q3 financial results showed a slight miss in revenue expectations but exceeded earnings per share forecasts, driven by lower expenses. The company maintains an optimistic outlook for Q4 and the overall year despite challenges in the Chinese market [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached €75.16 billion, slightly below the expected €76.8 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 0.7% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 2.3% [1][4]. - Earnings per share were €5.49, surpassing the expected €5.33, primarily due to lower expenses [1][4]. - The gross margin was higher than expected, attributed to cost control measures, with a gross margin rate of 51.9% [15][17]. Order Book and Market Dynamics - New bookings for Q3 totaled €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.97 billion, indicating strong demand, particularly in the storage sector [3][7]. - The share of ArFi products in revenue increased to 52%, surpassing EUV products for the first time since Q4 2022, reflecting a shift in market demand [10][12]. - Management indicated that demand from Chinese customers is expected to decline significantly by FY2026, which is already factored into market expectations [3][12]. Guidance and Future Outlook - For Q4, ASML projects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 51%-53%, maintaining an overall growth target of 15% for the year [3][6]. - The company has successfully navigated geopolitical challenges, with a 42% increase in market capitalization this year, bolstered by strong demand in the storage market [14][6]. Product and Revenue Structure - Q3 revenue from lithography machines was €55.54 billion, while service revenue was €19.62 billion, maintaining a high proportion of service revenue [20][23]. - The average selling price of EUV machines decreased by approximately 5.4%, while ArFi products saw a 3.4% decline, marking the first drop after three consecutive quarters of price increases [23][25].