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Core Viewpoint - The new rare earth export control regulations from China have significantly impacted ASML, jeopardizing its supply chain and operations, particularly concerning its EUV lithography machines [2][4][10]. Supply Chain Impact - ASML's EUV machines contain over 3,000 rare earth components, with 90% of their rare earth supply sourced from China, making it nearly impossible for ASML to bypass Chinese suppliers [4][7]. - The new regulations require approval for any equipment containing even 0.1% of Chinese rare earth elements, effectively controlling ASML's supply chain and limiting its operational flexibility [5][11]. Client Reactions - Major clients of ASML, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, are feeling the pressure from the rare earth restrictions, leading to production cuts and delays in chip manufacturing [7][11]. - TSMC has had to reduce its GaN chip production lines, while Samsung faces warnings about production capacity, highlighting the critical role of rare earth materials in lithography operations [7][11]. European Industry Response - European companies, including Volkswagen, BMW, and Siemens, are struggling with the implications of the rare earth regulations, as their electric motors rely heavily on Chinese rare earth magnets [8][11]. - The Dutch government is seeking exemptions for specific products, but China has firmly stated that there will be no exceptions to the new rules [8][11]. Strategic Dilemma for ASML - ASML is at a crossroads, facing the choice of either completely restructuring its supply chain, which could take over a decade, or seeking technical cooperation with China, which poses its own challenges [11][12]. - The situation reflects a broader narrative of the technology cold war, where supply chains are increasingly influenced by geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments [10][12].