Micron Technology(US:MU) Ge Long Hui·2025-10-16 07:05Core Viewpoint - The storage chip and semiconductor sectors in the A-share market are experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant price increases driven by supply-demand dynamics and AI computing needs [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early September, the sector has seen a cumulative increase of nearly 20%, and from the year-to-date low on April 9, the cumulative increase is close to 69%, indicating robust upward momentum [2]. - Individual stocks such as Yunhan Chip City and Xiangnong Chip Creation have shown strong performance, with Yunhan Chip City hitting a 20% limit up [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global storage chip industry is entering a "super cycle" due to strategic capacity reductions by major players and a surge in AI computing demand [4]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix have extended their DDR4 production plans to 2026, but the overall supply tightness remains unresolved [5]. - The ongoing supply-demand imbalance is pushing storage chip prices into a comprehensive upward trend, with price increases announced by companies like SanDisk (over 10%) and Micron (20%-30%) [5]. Group 3: AI Demand and Future Outlook - The explosion of AI computing demand is a core driver of this cycle, with estimates suggesting that OpenAI's demand alone could reach 900,000 wafers per month, double the current global HBM capacity [5]. - The CEO of Micron Technology anticipates that the supply-demand imbalance for global storage chips, particularly HBM, will continue to worsen, with HBM shipment growth expected to outpace overall DRAM growth by 2026 [5][9]. Group 4: Opportunities for Domestic Companies - The shift of international manufacturers towards high-value HBM production has created significant supply gaps, presenting opportunities for domestic storage chip companies to capture overflow demand [8]. - Domestic companies are making breakthroughs in key areas of the HBM supply chain, including packaging materials and power management chips, which could lead to substantial orders from domestic and global markets [8][9]. - The upcoming cycle in 2024 is expected to be driven by AI infrastructure demand, marking a shift from previous cycles that relied more on consumer demand [9].