“白衣骑士”频登场、多数仍陷转股难，银行可转债背后“冰火两重天”

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market for banks in October is experiencing a significant divergence, with some banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) achieving high conversion rates due to support from institutional investors, while many others are struggling with near-zero conversion rates, highlighting a clear divide between strong and weak banks [1][6]. Group 1: SPDB's Convertible Bond Performance - SPDB has achieved a conversion rate of over 76.5% for its 50 billion yuan convertible bonds, alleviating repayment pressure ahead of maturity [3][5]. - Key institutional investors, referred to as "white knights," such as China Mobile and Dongfang Asset, have significantly increased their holdings through conversion, enhancing SPDB's capital structure [3][4]. - The involvement of strategic investors is expected to boost market confidence and improve the financing environment for SPDB, mitigating liquidity risks associated with bond maturity [5][11]. Group 2: Market Divergence - The overall bank convertible bond market has shown a stark contrast, with some banks successfully triggering redemption clauses and completing conversions, while others have conversion rates close to zero [6][8]. - Five banks have exited the market through forced redemption this year, indicating a trend of successful conversions among stronger banks [6][7]. - In contrast, several banks, including Shanghai Bank, have seen minimal conversion activity, with some bonds having conversion rates as low as 0.11% [7][8]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Conversion Rates - The low conversion rates are primarily attributed to the performance of underlying stocks, investor sentiment, and the banks' operational conditions [8][9]. - When stock prices remain below conversion prices, investors are discouraged from converting due to potential immediate losses, particularly in banks with high conversion premiums [8][9]. - Regulatory policies also restrict conversion prices from falling below net asset values, which has diminished the attractiveness of conversions for many banks [8][9]. Group 4: Future Capital Supplementation Strategies - The increasing market divergence necessitates banks to explore diversified capital supplementation methods, especially for those with low conversion rates [10][12]. - Larger state-owned banks and quality joint-stock banks may achieve higher conversion rates through stock price recovery or strategic investor involvement, while smaller banks face ongoing challenges [10][12]. - Banks are encouraged to enhance their operational fundamentals, optimize regional strategies, and communicate effectively with investors to improve market perceptions and conversion rates [9][10].