中泰证券：9月M1增速继续提升 预计季末理财资金回流

Core Viewpoint - In September, new social financing (社融) increased by 3.53 trillion yuan, which is 229.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year, but higher than the consensus expectation of 3.27 trillion yuan [1][2] Social Financing Situation - New social financing in September showed a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with a slight decrease in growth rate by 0.1 percentage points compared to August [2] - The structure of social financing indicates that credit remains a major drag, with government bond support weakening further [2] Credit Structure Analysis - In September, new RMB loans increased by 1.61 trillion yuan, which is 366.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2] - The breakdown of credit shows that short-term loans for enterprises increased, while medium to long-term loans decreased, reflecting cautious market expectations [3] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - M1 growth rate continued to rise, while the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed, with M0, M1, and M2 growing by 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% year-on-year respectively [4] - In September, RMB deposits increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is 1.53 trillion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating significant pressure on demand deposits [4] Investment Recommendations - The operating model and investment logic for bank stocks have shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with a focus on regional banks and large banks [4] - Key recommendations include Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, among others, emphasizing the importance of regional advantages and high dividend yields [4]