Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in same-store sales, but initial signs of recovery are emerging, particularly for its Taier brand, which has shown positive growth in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai during Q3 2025 [1][2] - The company is adjusting its store network by closing underperforming locations, with a net reduction of 43 stores, primarily affecting Taier [1] - The company has upgraded its "5.0 Fresh Model," with 106 new model restaurants established by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by the end of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Same-store daily sales for Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu decreased by 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% year-on-year, respectively, in Q3 2025 [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly lowered, with projected revenues of 5.55-6.32 billion RMB and net profits of 140-300 million RMB [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 2.32 HKD from 2.79 HKD, maintaining a neutral rating based on a revised price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times the 2026 forecast [2] Operational Efficiency - The table turnover rates for Taier, Song, and Jiumaojiu were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5, respectively, showing a slight recovery compared to Q2 2025 [2] - The average customer spending has remained stable, with a slight decrease of 1 RMB for Taier and increases of 2 RMB and 1 RMB for Song and Jiumaojiu, respectively [2] - The focus on upgrading stores and controlling costs is expected to be a key observation point for the company in Q4 2025 [2]
九毛九(9922.HK)：3季度同店修复节奏仍然偏慢；下调盈利预测 维持中性评级