九毛九(9922.HK):品牌升级成效渐显 上调年底太二新店型落地数

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown improvement in its operational performance for Q3 2025, with a focus on optimizing store numbers and stabilizing average transaction values, while the decline in same-store sales for major brands is narrowing [1][2] Group 1: Store Performance - As of Q3 2025, the total number of stores is 686, a decrease of 138 stores year-on-year and 43 stores quarter-on-quarter [1] - The breakdown of store numbers by brand shows that Jiumaojiu has 64 stores, Taier has 530, and others have fewer, with Taier experiencing a year-on-year decrease of 124 stores [1] Group 2: Average Transaction Value - In Q3 2025, the average transaction values for Jiumaojiu, Taier, and Song Hotpot are 58, 74, and 100 yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4, 5, and 3 yuan [1] - The stability in average transaction values indicates a strategic shift from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience [1] Group 3: Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales for Q3 2025 show declines of 14.8% for Jiumaojiu, 9.3% for Taier, and 19.1% for Song Hotpot, with improvements in year-on-year comparisons for Taier and Jiumaojiu [1] - The narrowing decline in same-store sales for Taier and Jiumaojiu suggests that operational adjustments and brand upgrades are yielding positive results [1] Group 4: New Store Model - The new "5.0 Fresh Model" for Taier has performed well, with 106 new model stores established, contributing to improved same-store sales for three consecutive quarters [2] - The company has raised its target for new store openings to over 200 by the end of the year, driven by the success of the fresh ingredient strategy [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 5.668 billion, 6.063 billion, and 6.331 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 132 million, 223 million, and 250 million yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1x, 11.9x, and 10.6x for the respective years, indicating a favorable investment outlook [2]