AI 狂热、三季度大赚，但台积电没上头

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported record net profit for Q3 2025, but its stock price opened high and then fell due to market expectations of stronger AI demand and tight capacity, while TSMC remained conservative without increasing its capacity guidance or updating its CoWoS plans [1][5][11] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $34.14 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $15.5 billion, up 39% year-over-year [2][7] - Q3 gross margin improved to 59.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 57.1%, while operating margin rose to 50.6% [1][7][10] - Q4 revenue guidance indicates a slight decline of 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting full capacity utilization [1][9] AI Demand and Market Trends - TSMC's Chairman noted that AI demand is significantly stronger than three months ago, driven by exponential growth in tokens, which are doubling approximately every three months [4][5][12] - The company is adopting a "Foundry 2.0" strategy to integrate advanced packaging and system-level performance optimization to meet AI-driven semiconductor demand [4][30] - TSMC's clients, including Nvidia, are increasingly relying on TSMC for chip production, indicating sustained demand for GPU chips [3][6] Capacity and Capital Expenditure - Q3 capital expenditure was $9.7 billion, with a total of $29.39 billion for the first nine months, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion to meet high demand [2][11] - TSMC plans to allocate 70% of its 2025 capital budget to advanced process technologies, with total capital expenditure expected to be between $40 billion and $42 billion [11][12] Customer Signals and Industry Outlook - TSMC is receiving strong signals from its customers' customers for increased capacity to support their business, reinforcing confidence in the fundamental demand for semiconductors [5][13] - The company is closely monitoring AI-related demand and is prepared to expand capacity in response to structural growth in the market [12][14] Global Manufacturing and Expansion Plans - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for advanced packaging facilities to support customer needs [15][26] - The company is also expanding its manufacturing footprint in Japan and Europe, with ongoing projects in Kumamoto and Dresden [15][16] Technology and Innovation - TSMC's N2 technology is on track for production later this year, with expectations for rapid capacity ramp-up driven by demand in AI and high-performance computing applications [16][28] - The company emphasizes the importance of system-level performance over traditional transistor scaling, aligning with industry shifts [6][30]