石油市场的真相？大摩：OPEC增产有名无实、闲置产能更低、真实需求更强劲

Core Insights - The global oil market may have been misled by "fake data" for years, with Morgan Stanley's latest report revealing significant discrepancies in OPEC's production estimates, suggesting that actual idle capacity is much lower than perceived and that strong demand is quietly reshaping future oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: OPEC Production Estimates - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that the announced OPEC production increases may be more about catching up to existing production rather than genuinely increasing supply [4][12]. - The report highlights a record divergence in OPEC production estimates among data providers, with discrepancies reaching up to 2.5 million barrels per day [6][9]. - The actual idle capacity of OPEC is estimated to be around 2.9 million barrels per day, significantly lower than historical averages [15]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - If OPEC's production is indeed underestimated, it implies that global oil demand and its growth may also be systematically underestimated [4][16]. - The report suggests that a significant portion of the oil that is not accounted for in observable inventories has likely been consumed, rather than stored [16][17]. - The discrepancy in demand estimates among data providers indicates that there may be a 1% demand "omission," particularly in regions with limited reporting [17][21]. Group 3: Price Forecasts and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its Brent price forecasts downward for the first half of 2026, with expectations of a price recovery to $65 per barrel by the second half of 2027 [5][24]. - The short-term outlook suggests significant oversupply, with estimates of a surplus of 2-3 million barrels per day in late 2025 and early 2026 [24][25]. - The medium-term outlook indicates that the oil market may rebalance by the second half of 2027, driven by stronger demand trends and limited supply growth [24][25].