高盛：人工智能热潮并非泡沫，才刚刚起步

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the current AI boom is just beginning, despite growing concerns about an AI bubble in the market [1][3] Investment Scale and Economic Value - Current investment levels in AI are relatively small compared to the potential economic returns it can generate [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the long-term productivity gains from AI will far exceed initial investment costs, predicting an addition of approximately $20 trillion to the U.S. economy if AI becomes widely adopted [3] - The firm anticipates that around $8 trillion of this value will flow into corporate capital income [3] Productivity and Efficiency - The adoption of generative AI is expected to accelerate task automation, leading to significant labor cost savings and productivity improvements [3] - A baseline forecast indicates that overall labor productivity in the U.S. could increase by 15% over the next decade with full AI adoption [3] Comparison with Historical Investment Trends - AI-related investments in the U.S. currently account for less than 1% of GDP, compared to 2% to 5% during previous technology booms [4] - Goldman Sachs projects that AI-related spending will reach approximately $300 billion in 2025, which is deemed reasonable given the technology's long-term return potential [4] Market Concerns and Competitive Landscape - There are concerns about whether companies investing heavily in AI will ultimately reap the greatest rewards, especially considering the rapid depreciation of hardware [4] - Historical trends suggest that early movers in infrastructure development may not always achieve the best long-term outcomes, as later entrants can acquire assets at lower prices during downturns [5] Uncertainty in Market Structure - The current structure of the AI market is unclear, making it difficult to determine if leading AI companies today will remain long-term winners [6] - Early adopters are mitigating risks by utilizing multiple AI models rather than relying on a single ecosystem, which may weaken the competitive advantage of existing leaders [6] Future Investment Dynamics - It remains uncertain when the motivation for sustained AI investment will diminish, as early signs of productivity gains and steady improvements in model performance continue to drive investment [7] - Despite the transition from the construction phase to a mature phase in AI investment, the current technological environment still supports ongoing investment in AI [7]