TF Securities(SH:601162) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-20 08:25Core Viewpoint - The market atmosphere during the "Double Festival" is relatively flat, with a significant reduction in the traditional "peak season effect" [1][2] Sales and Pricing - Overall sales of liquor are expected to decline by 20%-30% during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, aligning with pre-festival expectations [2] - Terminal sales showed a mild month-on-month recovery in September, but remain under pressure; wholesale prices have decreased year-on-year, leading to a contraction in channel profits [1][2] - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing signs of recovery in pricing [5][7] Inventory and Channel Dynamics - Distributors are facing increased inventory levels due to sluggish sales in Q2 2025, with pre-festival stocking leading to a temporary rise in inventory [1][2] - Despite a slight reduction in inventory during the festival season, it is expected that real estate liquor distributors will still hold high inventory levels [1][2] Regional Performance - There is a notable regional differentiation in sales performance, with high-end brands and regional leaders showing resilience, while mass-market products face challenges [3][4] - In Jiangsu, urban banquet sales are stable, while rural markets show weakness; in Henan, the mass-market price segment is becoming the main sales driver [3] - In Sichuan, demand for mid-range products is under pressure in urban areas, while county markets show stable performance for products priced between 300-500 yuan [3] Consumer Behavior - The consumption trend is shifting towards rationality, with stable performance in essential consumption scenarios like banquets and family gatherings, while business and government consumption remains weak [4] - The 100-yuan price segment is becoming the main sales driver, with high-cost performance products gaining popularity in regions like Henan and Shandong [6] Investment Recommendations - The company suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sentiment in the liquor sector may see a recovery [7] - Specific stocks to watch include those with strong elasticity in policy expectations and consumer recovery, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [7]