金沙酒业“跌落谷底”，谁之过？

Core Viewpoint - After the acquisition of a 55.19% stake in Jinsha Distillery for 12.3 billion yuan by China Resources Beer, the once-promising liquor company has faced stagnation in growth, chaotic pricing, and a retreat of distributors, leading to a vicious cycle of decline [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jinsha Distillery, established in 2007, was initially unremarkable until it capitalized on the rising trend of sauce-flavored liquor, achieving significant sales growth from 2018 to 2021, with revenue reaching 6.066 billion yuan in 2021 [5][6]. - However, post-acquisition in October 2022, Jinsha Distillery's performance has sharply declined, with revenue dropping to 781 million yuan in the first half of 2023, a decrease of approximately 33.7% compared to 1.178 billion yuan in the same period the previous year [3][5]. Group 2: Distributor Challenges - Distributors have expressed disappointment and are retreating due to internal price wars and a collapse of the pricing system, with the market price of the core product, "Yanjian," falling to 430-450 yuan, leading to losses of nearly 200 yuan per bottle for distributors [9][10]. - The company's market support has significantly decreased, with promotional activities dropping drastically, resulting in a 70% decline in sales volume and an 80% drop in opening rates for "Yanjian" [10][11]. Group 3: Capital and Market Strategy - The challenges faced by Jinsha Distillery reflect a clash between China Resources Beer’s capital logic and the unique characteristics of the liquor industry, where brand culture and consumer recognition cannot be quickly acquired through capital means [13][14]. - The current market environment is characterized by a brutal clearing process, with a projected 2.8% decline in production for large-scale liquor companies in 2024, while Guizhou liquor production is expected to grow by 6.5%, indicating increasing industry differentiation [14].