Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-20 08:50Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - Goldman Sachs warns that by the end of 2025, American consumers may bear 55% of the tariff costs due to the ongoing trade war [1] - The report from Goldman Sachs is considered overly optimistic by some, including former President Trump, who expressed anger over the findings [1] Group 2: Agricultural Trade and Market Loss - Since July, the number of grain transport ships from the U.S. docking at a specific port in China has dropped to zero, potentially resulting in a loss of 16 million tons of soybean orders for the U.S. if China does not return to the market by mid-November [3] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to export $24.58 billion worth of soybeans, with over half of that amount, approximately $12.64 billion, coming from China [3] - The escalation of trade tensions has led China to significantly reduce soybean imports from the U.S., opting instead to source from Brazil and Argentina [3][5] Group 3: Domestic Agricultural Challenges - U.S. soybean farmers are facing dual challenges of low grain prices and China's refusal to purchase American soybeans, with many farmers preferring stable orders from China over uncertain government subsidies [11] - The Trump administration's promised agricultural relief plan has been delayed due to government shutdowns, exacerbating the difficulties faced by farmers [11] Group 4: Trade Policy and Economic Consequences - Trump's threats to halt certain trade with China, including edible oil, are seen as misguided, as the U.S. imports a limited amount of edible oil from China [7] - The analysis from Goldman Sachs contradicts Trump's claims that tariffs are borne by other countries, indicating that U.S. consumers are increasingly shouldering the burden [9] - U.S. core personal consumption expenditures have risen by 0.44% due to tariff policies, with inflation expected to reach 3% by December [9]