NKF(SH:603707) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-20 11:45Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of continuous net buying by institutional investors in certain stocks, highlighting the disparity between retail and institutional investor behavior [1][3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying data behind stock movements, particularly the "institutional inventory" data, to differentiate between sustainable growth and temporary spikes [5][7][8] Group 1: Market Behavior - The current market is characterized as a "liquidity bull market," where retail investors often react too late to market movements, leading to missed opportunities and losses [3][7] - The article draws a parallel to the quote from Qian Zhongshu's "Fortress Besieged," illustrating the conflicting desires of investors inside and outside the market [3] Group 2: Institutional vs. Retail Investors - Retail investors tend to enter the market after institutional investors have already made their moves, resulting in a detrimental time lag that can lead to significant losses [3][7] - The analysis of two contrasting stocks reveals that while one stock had a strong rebound, it lacked institutional support, indicating a potential trap for retail investors [5][7] Group 3: Stock Analysis - The article highlights 84 stocks that have seen continuous net buying from major funds, questioning whether this buying behavior is part of a strategic long-term investment or a short-term tactical move [7] - Historical data shows that stocks with a sustained upward trend in "institutional inventory" are more likely to experience long-term growth, while those with erratic inventory patterns may only see temporary gains [7] Group 4: Earnings Reports and Market Expectations - As the third-quarter earnings reports approach, the focus will shift to performance expectations, with "expectation gaps" being more critical than the earnings figures themselves [7] - The article suggests that monitoring changes in "institutional inventory" around earnings announcements can provide insights into whether institutions are selling on good news or buying into the stock [7][8]