国信证券：基本面磨底信号明显 关注食饮板块向上弹性

Industry Overview - The consumption policies' impact is gradually weakening, leading to a recovery phase in the restaurant supply chain demand, with positive signals emerging from the supply side, such as frequent mergers and acquisitions among leading companies, which enhance industry concentration [1] - The competition in the industry has not intensified further, and market spending is becoming more rational, indicating a potential improvement in the industry outlook [1] - Historical experience suggests that the fourth quarter will see concentrated macro policies, and any changes in supply and demand could catalyze stock price increases due to low baseline fundamentals and low institutional holdings [1] Market Performance - As of October 17, 2023, the condiment index has decreased by 6.1% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.3 percentage points and the food and beverage sector by 3.5 percentage points [1] - The pre-processed food index has dropped by 6.4%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.6 percentage points and the food and beverage sector by 3.8 percentage points [1] - Since August, the food and beverage sector has risen by 3.0%, with the condiment sector showing similar trends, primarily driven by large-cap stocks like Haitian Flavoring and Food [1] Key Companies - Haitian Flavoring and Food (603288): Demonstrates self-innovation and highlights its leading advantages [2] - Baba Food (605338): Driven by both store expansion and group meal services, enhancing its operational capabilities [2] - Anjuke Food (603345): Maintains stable core operational capabilities with clear product and channel strategies [2] - Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215): Optimizes channel structure, with new channel potential expected to drive growth [2] - Yihai International: Maintains a solid foundation with related parties and a high dividend rate, with clear new growth points [2]