怕稀土卡脖子？ASML突然对我们放出王炸，美国表示：防线崩了

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor supply chain is at a critical turning point, with the Netherlands, particularly ASML, playing a pivotal role in shaping technology strategies across nations [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Since 2019, the U.S. has imposed export controls preventing ASML from selling extreme ultraviolet lithography systems to China, which are essential for processes below 5nm [2]. - In 2023, the Netherlands followed suit by imposing licensing requirements on immersion deep ultraviolet machines, causing delays in Chinese procurement [2][4]. - By 2025, geopolitical factors intensified, leading to the Netherlands expanding controls to include maintenance services and older models, complicating operations for suppliers [4]. Group 2: Localized Production and Supply Chain Efficiency - ASML supplier KMWE established a small factory in Suzhou in May 2023, focusing on 3D printing metal parts and key module production, reducing reliance on cross-border licensing [5][7]. - The revenue contribution from KMWE's factory reached 11% of total income, amounting to €190 million, indicating strong market appeal [7]. - ASML upgraded its Beijing service center in March 2025, halving response times for software debugging and parts replacement, reflecting a shift towards local service capabilities [7][10]. Group 3: Sales and Market Strategy - ASML's sales to China accounted for 46% of its revenue in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by the demand for older, unrestricted equipment [12]. - The Dutch government simplified administrative processes for ASML's sales to China, enhancing efficiency by 30% compared to the previous year [10]. - ASML's Q3 2025 report indicated strong orders with net bookings of €540 million, while Chinese sales represented 42% of total revenue [17]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Local Innovations - ASML's technology evolution from deep ultraviolet to extreme ultraviolet systems has improved exposure precision, with deep ultraviolet machines using a 193nm light source [12][14]. - Chinese companies like Shanghai Micro Electronics have transitioned from laboratory to mass production, enhancing their capabilities to cover mature nodes [19]. - Local suppliers are investing in automation and digital technologies to improve production efficiency and reduce defect rates [14][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook - The Netherlands' actions are seen as a challenge to U.S. dominance, indicating a potential shift in alliances within the semiconductor industry [16][21]. - Despite a projected decline in Chinese revenue to 20% by 2026, ASML's absolute sales figures remain significant, with local factories expanding production lines [17][21]. - The global chip competition is entering a new phase, with Dutch companies signaling a willingness to explore cooperative opportunities with China [21].