TF Securities(SH:601162) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-21 05:50Core Viewpoint - Recent domestic thermal coal prices have surged unexpectedly, with the Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 748 RMB/ton as of October 17, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 43 RMB/ton [1] Supply Constraints - Production has been disrupted by seasonal factors, including frequent rainfall in key production areas and ongoing inspections for overproduction, leading to a decrease in coal supply [2] - Domestic raw coal production has declined since July-August due to self-inspection for overproduction, with recent data showing a year-on-year decrease of 4% in production from Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [2] - Although September saw a rebound in import volumes, rising shipping costs and increased foreign mine prices may hinder significant growth in October imports [2] Consumption Trends - Despite being a traditional off-peak season for electricity consumption, demand has remained strong due to warmer weather in southern regions and the early start of winter heating in northern areas [3] - The forecast of a potential weak La Niña event this winter may lead to colder conditions, further supporting winter coal storage sentiment [3] Inventory Levels - Domestic power plants and port inventories have decreased slightly, remaining below levels from the same period in 2024 [4] - As of October 16, 2025, power plant inventories in 25 provinces stood at 518.8 million tons, slightly lower than 520.2 million tons in 2024 [4] Price Outlook - The target price for thermal coal has been raised to 750-800 RMB/ton due to diminishing rainfall impacts, ongoing safety inspections, and supply constraints from maintenance on the Daqin line [5]