Micron Technology(US:MU) Guan Cha Zhe Wang·2025-10-21 08:46Core Insights - The memory prices are expected to surge in 2025, with DDR4 prices more than doubling, as demand increases due to the AI chip manufacturing boom [1][2] - The global memory chip industry is entering what analysts refer to as a "super cycle," driven by tight supply and increased demand from various sectors [1][2] - Major memory manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting production capacity towards higher-margin products like DDR5 and HBM chips, moving away from DDR4 [2][8] Industry Trends - The demand for DRAM chips has surged, with reports indicating that the average inventory cycle for DRAM chips has dropped to just eight weeks, significantly lower than previous periods [7] - The average price of DDR5 server memory modules has skyrocketed, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring memory manufacturers [3][8] - The AI boom is coinciding with a new upgrade cycle for traditional data centers and personal computers, further tightening the supply of non-HBM memory chips [2][3] Financial Performance - Memory chip manufacturers are experiencing significant profit margins, with Samsung's standard DRAM business operating profit margin around 40% and HBM at 60% [8] - Stock prices for major memory manufacturers have surged, with Samsung's stock up over 80%, SK Hynix up 170%, and Micron up 140% year-to-date [8] - The current shortage and price increases in memory chips are leading some companies to pass on costs to consumers, as seen with Raspberry Pi's recent price hike [8] Market Outlook - The current market conditions are being described as a classic short supply cycle, with some analysts cautioning against overhyping the "super cycle" narrative [9] - Predictions indicate that the chip industry may enter a recession by 2027, suggesting that the current boom may not be sustainable in the long term [9]