高盛：“我们正处于iPhone超级周期吗？”

Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock price rose 4% to a historical high of $262.24, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, leading to speculation about the onset of an iPhone super cycle [1] Group 1: Demand and Sales Performance - Counterpoint Research reported that the iPhone 17 series saw a 14% increase in sales in the first 10 days compared to the iPhone 16 series [3] - Goldman Sachs highlighted extended delivery times for the iPhone 17 series, indicating robust demand, with the average delivery cycle being 24 days, compared to 20 days for the iPhone 16 series [3][4] - The demand for the iPhone 17 series is expected to surpass that of the iPhone 16, supported by longer delivery cycles, increased production plans, and positive feedback from carriers [3][4] Group 2: Regional Insights - Delivery times for the iPhone 17 series have exceeded those of the iPhone 16 series across markets including the US, UK, India, Japan, and Hong Kong [4] - In mainland China, while there are delays for the iPhone Air model, other iPhone 17 models maintain delivery times above last year's levels [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs anticipates that Apple's revenue and earnings per share for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 will exceed expectations, driven by a 10% increase in iPhone sales and a 12% increase in Mac sales [4] - The gross margin is projected to be 46.5%, reflecting approximately $1.1 billion in tariff costs [4] - Earnings per share expectations for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been raised by about 3% due to sustained strong demand for the iPhone [5] Group 4: Supply Chain Impact - The strong momentum of the iPhone 17 series has positively affected the stock prices of Apple's Asian supply chain partners, with companies like Luxshare Precision and LG Display seeing stock price increases exceeding 20% [5] - The success of the iPhone 17 is also providing a boost to the Taiwanese stock market, where major companies like TSMC and Foxconn have significant revenue dependence on Apple [5]