Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For Q3 2025, CICC expects core OTA revenue to grow by 14% year-on-year, with total group revenue increasing by 9% to RMB 5.45 billion, and Non-IFRS net profit projected at RMB 1.02 billion [2] - The hotel segment is expected to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a stable share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is projected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rise in international ticket sales [2] Group 2: Overall Business Performance - The company maintains a 15% growth expectation for core OTA revenue in 2025, driven by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The hotel management business is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with the completion of the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management in Q4 [3] - CICC maintains the forecast for the company's Non-IFRS net profit at RMB 3.3 billion for 2025, supported by efficient cost control and enhanced international business monetization [3]
中金：维持同程旅行跑赢行业评级 目标价28港元