Bank of America(US:BAC) Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-10-22 09:17Core Viewpoint - The recent report by Savita Subramanian from Bank of America highlights emerging risks that could impact the S&P 500 index, suggesting a shift from index funds to individual stocks for investors [1]. Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 index is currently valued above historical averages across 20 valuation metrics, indicating a high valuation level [3][4]. - Nine of these metrics suggest that the index's trading levels have surpassed those seen during the peak of the dot-com bubble, with four metrics reaching all-time highs [4]. Accumulating Bear Market Signals - Bank of America tracks ten "bear market signals," which have historically indicated market peaks, with 60% of these signals currently triggered, approaching the average of 70% seen before past market tops [6][7]. Economic Transparency Risks - Recent government shutdowns and escalating trade disputes have disrupted economic recovery, leading to decreased corporate willingness to invest [8]. Speculative Activity and Private Lending Risks - The rise of private lending institutions post-2008 financial crisis has raised concerns about underwriting standards, with fears of potential systemic credit events linked to speculative trading activities [9]. - Investor margin debt has returned to peak levels, indicating increased reliance on speculative trading [9]. Liquidity Concerns - The S&P 500 index may be more vulnerable to shocks due to liquidity issues, as asset owners have shifted towards a "barbell strategy" of holding index funds and private equity [10]. - If concerns about private lending institutions persist, large institutional investors may be forced to sell index funds, leading to significant market sell-offs [12].