国信证券：黄金技术面趋于极限，短期需要注意节奏，长牛逻辑未出现明显破绽

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. However, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][15]. Market Structure - The current trading structure for gold is notably fragile, primarily driven by investors and speculators rather than central banks. This contrasts with earlier market behavior where central bank purchases provided stability. The absence of central bank involvement in the recent price increase raises concerns about market sustainability [2][3][4]. - The recent surge in gold prices has been accompanied by a significant increase in ETF sizes, which are typically characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, leading to heightened volatility [3][4]. Technical Indicators - Technical analysis indicates that the recent price surge reached a critical threshold, with gold hitting three times the standard deviation upper limit, suggesting a natural correction is due. Historical data shows that similar instances have led to price adjustments [5][7]. - The implied volatility of gold ETFs has surged, which historically signals potential turning points and exhaustion of trends, further indicating an impending sharp correction [7]. Historical Context - Historical analysis reveals that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range has been between 20% to 40%, with maximum declines occurring between 23 to 148 trading days post-peak. This suggests that investors should prepare for potential prolonged adjustments [10][13]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures for adjustment, the long-term bullish narrative for gold remains robust, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [15].