“剧王”奈飞的财报，华尔街不满意

Core Viewpoint - Netflix reported disappointing earnings for Q3 despite having strong content, with revenue growth driven by membership increases, price hikes, and advertising revenue [1][2]. Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue reached $11.51 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17.2%, primarily due to membership growth, pricing increases, and advertising revenue [1]. - The advertising business set a record for sales in this quarter, with expectations to double advertising revenue by 2025 [1]. Profitability Metrics - Net profit was $2.547 billion, below market expectations of $3 billion, with growth slowing from 45.6% in Q2 to 7.7% [2]. - Operating profit was $3.24 billion, with an operating margin of 28%, both lower than market expectations [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were $5.87, falling short of the anticipated $6.94 [3]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Netflix's stock price dropped 6.5% in after-hours trading [4]. - The stock had previously reached an all-time high of nearly $1,340 on June 30, but has since experienced volatility [4]. Content and Engagement - Netflix's content remains strong, with "Kpop: The Witch's Revenge" becoming the platform's highest-grossing film and shows like "Wednesday" maintaining popularity [4]. - User engagement reached historical peaks, indicating strong content performance [4]. Growth Sustainability Concerns - Market anxiety stems from concerns about the sustainability of growth, as Netflix will stop disclosing "net subscriber additions" starting in 2025, focusing instead on revenue and engagement [5]. - Analysts believe Netflix is nearing saturation in key markets like North America and Europe, raising questions about future growth [5]. Diversification Strategies - Netflix aims to diversify revenue streams through advertising, gaming, and sports live streaming, though these avenues present challenges [5]. - The gaming and sports sectors require ongoing investment, which may impact short-term profits [5]. - The advertising model carries risks of user downgrade and relies on high engagement and user acceptance [5]. Q4 Guidance - For Q4, Netflix provided cautious guidance, expecting revenue of $11.96 billion and an operating margin of 23.9% [6]. - The company raised its full-year free cash flow forecast to $9 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6]. Future Outlook - Content remains Netflix's primary competitive advantage, but future success will depend on balancing diversified monetization and long-term profitability [7]. - The challenge for Netflix, as a leader in the streaming industry, is to demonstrate that the streaming "ceiling" has not yet been reached [8].