TD Cowen上调2026年铜价预估至每磅5.25美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a tightening copper market, with TD Cowen raising its price forecasts for copper due to supply disruptions from major mines [1][3] - The price forecast for 2026 has been increased from $4.40 to $5.25 per pound, while the long-term forecast has been adjusted from $4.25 to $4.50 per pound [1] - A significant supply disruption occurred at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is the second-largest copper concentrate mine globally, leading to a 5% global supply interruption [1][2] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine incident resulted in Freeport McMoRan suspending operations and declaring force majeure, with a revised production target for 2026 down by 35% [1] - Other supply disruptions this year include the Kamoa-Kakula mine affected by earthquakes, challenges in increasing production at QB mine, and a collapse at El Teniente mine, collectively impacting about 2% of global supply [2] - TD Cowen forecasts a copper supply shortage of 22,200 tons by 2026, indicating that this figure may be conservative due to declining production from mature mines and a lack of greenfield investments [3]