Company Overview - The company reported Q3 2025 operational data showing a 79% year-on-year increase in Southeast Asia business volume to an average of 21.7 million items per day, a 10% increase in China business volume to 60.6 million items per day, and a 48% increase in new market business volume to 1.1 million items per day, indicating better-than-expected performance in international market share expansion [1]. Southeast Asia Market - The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, driven by the growth of social e-commerce, with a potential turning point in the express delivery landscape by 2025. The EBIT per parcel is anticipated to remain stable [1]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is still in a high growth phase, with trends towards free shipping likely to further stimulate online shopping habits. The company, as the leading express delivery service, is expected to leverage its scale advantages to widen the gap with other third-party logistics providers [1]. - The market shares of the fourth and fifth-ranked third-party logistics providers have decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 5.5% and by 0.9 percentage points to 4.4%, while the company’s market share has increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8% [1]. New Market Development - The new market is still in its early development stage, with the company’s parcel volume expected to grow significantly alongside the penetration of e-commerce. The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has increased 45 times from $1 million in May to $46.135 million in August [2]. - As a third-party logistics provider for both Chinese outbound e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising e-commerce penetration rates [2]. China Market Outlook - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges from price wars in China, but a potential easing of competition in the second half of the year may improve conditions. The company is monitoring cost optimization progress [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected profits in China, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 8% and 12% to $319 million and $470 million, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 37 and 25 [2]. - The target price remains unchanged, reflecting a 9% upside potential based on P/E ratios of 40 and 27 for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2].
极兔速递-W(1519.HK)：东南亚与新市场业务量超预期 国际份额扩张中