CATL(SZ:300750) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-22 14:14Core Viewpoint - The third-quarter performance of CATL slightly exceeded expectations, driven by operational cost optimization and a surge in energy storage demand, leading to an upgrade in target prices for both H-shares and A-shares, while reaffirming a "Buy" rating due to its dual leadership in the power battery and energy storage sectors [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Highlights - In Q3, CATL achieved revenue of 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 18.55 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%, surpassing Bank of America's expectations by 6% and market consensus by 3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 25.8%, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating strong cost control capabilities [2] - Total battery shipments in Q3 were approximately 180 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%, with power batteries accounting for 80% and energy storage batteries for 20% [2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - CATL plans to increase battery production by 41% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month in October, with high capacity utilization driven by strong energy storage demand [3] - The company is focusing on three main areas for capacity expansion: domestic energy storage capacity, overseas production bases, and technological advancements to reduce costs [3][4] Group 3: Demand Structure - The demand for commercial vehicle batteries has doubled since 2025, accounting for 20% of total EV battery shipments in Q3, indicating a strong growth engine for the power battery segment [5] - Energy storage demand is robust due to the widening price difference between peak and valley electricity, leading to a significant increase in the return on independent energy storage projects [5] Group 4: Financial Forecast Adjustments - Bank of America has raised CATL's core financial indicators for 2025-2027, with EPS for 2025 adjusted from 14.92 yuan to 15.34 yuan, and net profit for 2025 expected to reach 70 billion yuan [6] - Total shipments are projected to reach 630 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [6] Group 5: Valuation and Target Prices - Bank of America has raised the target price for CATL's H-shares from 570 HKD to 605 HKD and for A-shares from 467 yuan to 495 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current A-share price [7][8] - The valuation adjustments reflect the growth potential driven by energy storage and commercial vehicle demand, as well as new product strategies [7]