基石药业-B(02616.HK):三抗在ESMO展示出良好的疗效及安全性信号

Core Insights - CS2009, a tri-specific antibody targeting PD-1, VEGF, and CTLA-4, demonstrated promising initial data at the 2025 ESMO conference, with 72.2% of 72 advanced solid tumor patients still undergoing treatment as of October 19 [1][2] - The design of the tri-antibody shows excellent synergistic effects, enhancing anti-tumor activity in the tumor microenvironment (TME) while avoiding interference with peripheral CTLA-4 positive T cells, thus broadening the therapeutic window [1] - CS2009 exhibited good safety profiles, with grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events (TRAE) occurring in only 13.9% of patients, and no grade 4 or 5 TRAE reported [2] Efficacy and Safety - Initial results indicate a good and improving anti-tumor activity, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 12.2% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 71.4% across all dose groups, showing a dose-dependent increase [3] - The safety profile of CS2009 is favorable compared to other immune-oncology (IO) dual antibodies and combination therapies, with lower rates of adverse events [2][3] Clinical Development - A global multi-center phase I/II clinical trial for CS2009 has been initiated, with plans for a phase III trial expected to start in 2026 [4] - The phase II study has already commenced in Australia, with more data anticipated to be presented at the 2026 ASCO conference [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 123 million, 829 million, and 1.125 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -68.25%, 575.37%, and 35.81% [4] - Net profits attributable to shareholders are projected to be -213 million, 93 million, and 307 million yuan for the same years [4] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating for CS2009, citing its initial efficacy and safety data, as well as the potential for further positive signals with extended follow-up [5]