Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains an outperform rating for Jitu Express (01519), projecting profits of $319 million and $470 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37x and 25x. The target price remains at HKD 11.1, indicating a 9% upside from the current price [1]. Group 1: Southeast Asia Market - Jitu Express is expected to maintain its leading market share in Southeast Asia, benefiting from the growth of social e-commerce and the optimization of the express delivery landscape in 2025 [2]. - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased by 5.4 percentage points to 32.8%, while competitors saw declines in their market shares [2]. - The trend of free shipping in Southeast Asia's e-commerce is anticipated to further stimulate online shopping habits, allowing Jitu Express to leverage its scale for cost advantages [2]. Group 2: New Markets - The logistics industry in Latin America is still in its early stages, with Jitu Express positioned to benefit from increasing e-commerce penetration [3]. - The GMV of TikTok Shop in Brazil has seen significant growth, indicating a rising demand for logistics services in the region [3]. - Jitu Express is expected to maintain high growth in shipment volumes as it serves both Chinese outbound e-commerce platforms and local Latin American platforms [3]. Group 3: China Market - In the short to medium term, the company faces challenges due to price wars, but there may be relief in the second half of the year as "anti-involution" trends emerge [4]. - The company is under observation for its cost optimization progress, which could impact its performance in the competitive Chinese market [4].
中金：维持极兔速递-W跑赢行业评级 目标价11.1港元