国金证券：拉尼娜现象出现概率上升 短期天然气市场或受扰动

Group 1 - The probability of the La Niña phenomenon has increased to over 75%, which may lead to a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Current European natural gas inventory is at a median level, with a 13.05% decrease compared to the same period last year and an 8.32% decrease compared to the five-year average [3] - The average temperature in the Asia-Europe region is predicted to be higher than historical averages, but there is still a chance of sudden temperature drops due to La Niña [1][3] Group 2 - The daily coal consumption of coal-fired power plants in northern China has increased by 12.5% week-on-week due to rising demand for heating [2] - The global LNG market is expected to see a gradual easing of supply and demand, with North America's LNG export capacity projected to grow by approximately 152% from early 2024 to 2029 [4] - The average gas price in Asia and Europe is expected to decline as the LNG market becomes more liquid and balanced [4]