股票对冲新工具！摩根大通：黄金配置若升至4.6%，金价则有望翻倍

Core Insights - A potential shift in asset allocation is occurring, with gold possibly replacing bonds as a preferred hedging tool against stock market risks [1][6] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that if global non-bank private investors increase their gold allocation from 2.6% to 4.6%, gold prices could rise by over 110% by 2028 [1][9] Group 1: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly buying both stocks and gold while avoiding long-duration bonds traditionally used for hedging stock market risks [6][7] - Despite a recent drop in gold prices, year-to-date gold prices have risen by 54%, and physical gold ETF holdings have increased by 19%, indicating strong investor demand [7] Group 2: Gold Allocation and Price Projections - The current allocation of gold at 2.6% (approximately $6.6 trillion) is deemed insufficient for effective hedging against a stock allocation of 48% [7][9] - If investors shift a portion of their bond allocation to gold, the total gold allocation could rise to 4.6%, necessitating a 110% increase in gold prices to meet this new demand by 2028 [9] Group 3: Historical Context - The current trend of using gold as a hedge differs fundamentally from the gold rush of the 1970s, which was driven by fears of currency devaluation [10][13] - Historical data shows that even at the peak in the late 1970s, gold allocation among non-bank investors was significantly lower than current levels, reinforcing the uniqueness of the present situation [13]