绩后下跌，特斯拉面临关键抉择

Core Insights - Tesla reported record revenue in Q3 but faced significant profit pressure, with revenue reaching $28.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase and a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing the expected $27.24 billion; however, net profit plummeted by 37% to $1.373 billion [1][2] Financial Performance - The automotive business generated $21.2 billion in revenue, slightly exceeding the expected $20.9 billion, with a delivery volume of 497,000 units, significantly surpassing the sell-side expectation of 444,000 units [4] - Energy storage revenue grew rapidly to $3.4 billion, a 44% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 31%, exceeding the expected 27% [6] Profitability Challenges - Net profit declined sharply due to a 50% increase in operating expenses to $3.4 billion, driven by R&D costs of $1.63 billion focused on HW 5.0 chip, Robotaxi, and Optimus development, alongside increased sales and administrative expenses [7] - Tariff risks have raised costs, with an increase of approximately $2,650 per vehicle in the U.S. due to component tariffs, and an additional $87,500 per imported Model S/X in China, leading to a total tariff impact exceeding $400 million in Q3 [7] Strategic Developments - Tesla launched the FSDV14 version, enhancing obstacle avoidance and emergency vehicle response, with total FSD mileage surpassing 6 billion miles [8] - The approval timeline for FSD in China and Europe remains uncertain, with EU-wide approval expected by May 2025 [11] Future Outlook - Q4 delivery expectations are projected to decline to 420,000-440,000 units, down from 497,000 in Q3, influenced by the reduction of IRA subsidies and the cancellation of the anticipated Model 2.5 [12] - Profit margins are expected to remain under pressure due to declining sales, reduced carbon credits, and tariff impacts [12] Leadership and Governance - Elon Musk's comments during the earnings call linked his control over the company to the success of the Robotaxi and Optimus projects, raising concerns about his influence amid a significant compensation proposal potentially worth $1 trillion [16][17] - The upcoming shareholder vote on Musk's compensation plan is critical, with current support at only 42%, and failure to pass could impact the progress of key strategic initiatives [16][20] Market Reactions - Market analysts express concerns over short-term profitability visibility, with Morgan Stanley lowering its 2026 profit forecast by 12% due to uncertainties surrounding the commercialization of Robotaxi and technological breakthroughs for Optimus [20] - The stock price reflects optimism from Q3 performance but faces potential downward pressure if Q4 profits decline significantly or if strategic initiatives continue to lag [21]