猪价持续低位震荡，温氏股份第三季度净利润下滑超60%

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Wens Food Group in the third quarter of 2025 reflects significant challenges due to the cyclical downturn in the pig and chicken industries, despite some signs of price recovery in the pork market [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Wens Food Group reported a revenue of 75.788 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.29% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 25.937 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.76%, with net profit dropping significantly by 65.02% [2]. - The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters was 0.7930 yuan, down 18.25% year-on-year [1]. Industry Context - The pig farming sector is currently at a cyclical low, with the average price of external three yuan pigs in Q3 2025 at 13.88 yuan/kg, down 28.9% year-on-year, marking a significant decline [2]. - Wens Food Group's pig sales price in September 2025 was 13.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 29% year-on-year, with further declines noted in the latter part of the quarter [2]. - The chicken business also faced price pressures, with the average sales price for white feather chickens in June 2025 at 10.29 yuan/kg, down 24.78% year-on-year [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The pig industry is experiencing an oversupply, with the number of breeding sows at 40.43 million, exceeding the normal level [4]. - Demand for pork remains weak, with limited consumption boosts from the recent holidays, leading to a decline in slaughter rates and increased inventory levels [4]. - The average loss per pig for self-breeding and self-raising operations was 7.27 yuan in September, with losses worsening in October [4]. Policy and Market Outlook - Regulatory measures are being implemented to address supply-demand imbalances, including controlling breeding sow expansion and culling excess stock [5]. - Experts suggest that the current low prices for pork may have reached their bottom, with expectations for a potential rebound in prices post-October [5]. - The ongoing "pig cycle" presents both challenges and opportunities for the industry to optimize its structure and improve quality, with a more stable and sustainable development anticipated in the future [6].