IBM(US:IBM) Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2025-10-26 01:56Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. major stock indices have recovered losses and reached new historical highs, with the S&P 500 index touching 6800 points for the first time [1] - The market is expected to face dual opportunities and challenges with upcoming events including the Federal Reserve's decision, earnings from major tech stocks, and the APEC leaders' informal meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Inflation - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than August's 0.4%, while the year-on-year growth increased from 2.9% to 3%, but still below Wall Street's expectation of 3.1% [3] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in August, and the year-on-year growth decreased from 3.1% to 3% [3] - Concerns over high prices continue to affect consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index falling to 53.6, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, with predictions of two 25 basis point cuts this year and two more in 2026 [5] - The Fed's officials are expected to maintain a cautious approach to further rate cuts, focusing on labor market risks, although there are currently no widespread layoffs or spending reductions [5] Group 4: Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment - The earnings season for major tech companies is anticipated to be a key focus, particularly regarding their AI-related capital expenditure plans, which are crucial for third-quarter performance and further market gains [7] - The market has shown increased risk appetite, with investors net buying $9.65 billion in U.S. stock funds, ending a two-week streak of outflows [6] Group 5: Technical Analysis and Market Volatility - The recent highs in major stock indices are seen as bullish signals, although the market's expectations for upcoming catalysts are at a high level [8] - The volatility index (VIX) is currently at a relatively low level of 16, indicating potential for further market gains if upcoming events unfold as expected [8]