东鹏饮料：特饮降速，神话难撑？

Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage's Q3 2025 performance showed decent growth quality, but the main issue was the deceleration in energy drink sales, leading to overall results slightly below market expectations [1][6][8] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, Dongpeng Beverage achieved total revenue of 6.11 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, but showed a deceleration compared to the previous two quarters [1][8] - The energy drink segment generated revenue of 4.2 billion RMB, growing 15% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly three years [1][10] - The electrolyte drink segment reported revenue of 1.35 billion RMB, with an impressive year-on-year growth of 84%, maintaining high growth despite a slight decline in the growth rate [2][12] Profitability - Dongpeng's profit for Q3 2025 reached 1.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%, indicating a higher growth rate than revenue [1][8] - The overall gross margin slightly decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 45.2% due to the increased volume of lower-margin electrolyte and other beverages [3][28] - Core operating profit margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 27.4% due to reduced overall expense ratios [4][31] Market Dynamics - The core market in Guangdong is nearing its growth ceiling, with only a 2% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, indicating limited growth potential [2][18] - Other regions, excluding Guangdong, achieved revenue of 3.73 billion RMB, growing 42% year-on-year, with the North China region showing particularly strong performance [20][26] Strategic Insights - Dongpeng's "second growth curve" in electrolyte drinks is expected to continue its rapid growth, potentially reaching a market size of 30 billion RMB [12][15] - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its distributors rather than expanding the number, indicating a shift in strategy towards enhancing operational efficiency [26]