IBM(US:IBM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-26 16:28Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. major stock indices have recovered losses and reached new historical highs, with the S&P 500 index touching 6800 points for the first time [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by positive corporate earnings reports and easing consumer price inflation pressures [1][2] - The upcoming week will feature significant events including the Federal Reserve's decision, earnings from major tech stocks, and the APEC leaders' informal meeting, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than August's 0.4%, while the year-on-year increase rose from 2.9% to 3%, still below Wall Street's expectation of 3.1% [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in August, and year-on-year growth decreased from 3.1% to 3% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 53.6 in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about inflation and high prices [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have strengthened, with predictions of two 25 basis point cuts this year and two more in 2026 [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to further rate cuts, monitoring labor market risks while noting that there have not been widespread layoffs or spending reductions [4] - Inflation risks are anticipated to gain more weight in the Federal Reserve's policy considerations as economic downward risks diminish [4] Group 4: Sector Performance - The technology sector led the market with a weekly gain of nearly 2.8%, with IBM notably rising by 9.3% after raising its full-year revenue growth forecast [5] - The energy sector increased by 2.4%, driven by a significant rebound in crude oil prices, while industrials and consumer discretionary sectors also saw gains [5] - Only the consumer staples and utilities sectors experienced slight declines, with decreases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively [5] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Investor risk appetite has increased, with a net inflow of $9.65 billion into U.S. stock funds, ending a two-week streak of outflows [6] - The focus is shifting towards the upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, which are deemed crucial for market performance [6] - Despite ongoing government shutdown concerns, the market remains optimistic, with key catalysts including tech earnings, U.S.-China trade talks, and the Federal Reserve meeting expected to influence market trends [6][7]