NONGFU SPRING(HK:09633) 3 6 Ke·2025-10-27 10:27Core Insights - The performance of sugar-free tea in 2025 is not as robust as initially anticipated, with market competition returning to a more rational state [1][4] - Established brands like Nongfu Spring and Suntory are maintaining a steady approach, while emerging brands are showing signs of fatigue amid slowing category growth and price wars [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - In the 2025 beverage peak season (April to September), the sales growth rate of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea has significantly slowed compared to 2024, with every month showing lower growth rates [4][6] - The average price per unit has increased from 5.1 yuan to 5.6 yuan, indicating that consumers are willing to spend more on larger sizes, reflecting a shift towards quality over price competition [6][10] - The average price per 100ml has shown a decreasing trend, but the decline has slowed down, suggesting a stabilization in pricing and a move away from aggressive price wars [6][10] Group 2: Market Structure - The overall slowdown in category growth is leading to a restructuring of market shares, with established sugar-free tea groups strengthening their market control [11][14] - In the 2025 peak season, established sugar-free tea groups maintained their dominant market position, while the market shares of comprehensive beverage groups and challengers decreased [14][18] - The combined market share of the top three roles exceeded 95%, indicating a high concentration in the category and limited space for new entrants [14][18] Group 3: Tea Type Analysis - Jasmine tea remains the most popular type, with stable market share, while Oolong tea saw fluctuations but rebounded in September [8][28] - The average price of Oolong tea has increased in the 2025 peak season compared to 2024, reflecting a positive trend in consumer acceptance of higher prices [10][28] - The market share of established brands in the Oolong tea segment exceeded 85%, with a notable decline in the market share of comprehensive beverage groups [28][35] Group 4: Consumer Trends - The trend of product diversification through tea blends is becoming increasingly important, with consumers showing interest in both single and blended Oolong teas [26][31] - The market for blended Oolong tea is growing, with challengers capturing a significant share, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more diverse flavor profiles [38][42] - Established brands are focusing on maintaining a loyal customer base while challengers aim to attract new consumers through innovative flavor combinations [38][42] Conclusion - The sugar-free tea market is transitioning from growth to maturity, with established brands solidifying their positions while challengers face increasing pressure [25][43] - The emphasis on product quality and brand loyalty is crucial for long-term success in a competitive landscape [43][44]