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40年40人|专访兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委:从制造大国迈向创新高地 中国经济稳中向好

Core Viewpoint - The interview with Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank, highlights the resilience and vast development potential of the Chinese economy, emphasizing the importance of seizing opportunities from the new technological revolution and accelerating reform and opening up to maintain a long-term positive trend in economic growth [1][3]. Economic Opportunities - China possesses a complete industrial system and a large pool of high-quality labor and entrepreneurial talent, which positions it well for a strategic opportunity period in economic advancement [2]. - The country has a super-large market demand advantage, providing ample application scenarios for new technologies and products, facilitating practical learning and development [2]. - As of 2023, the revenue from TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors has surpassed that of real estate, indicating a successful structural transformation in the economy [2]. Economic Challenges - The global landscape is experiencing unprecedented changes, with increased external uncertainties, rising protectionism, and trade barriers impacting global trade growth [3]. - Domestically, China is undergoing a critical phase of economic structural transformation, with some key industries facing structural contradictions and supply-demand imbalances [3]. Role of Banking Sector - The banking sector is crucial in supporting high-quality economic development by providing financial services to the real economy, promoting consumption, and stabilizing employment [3][4]. - Banks are encouraged to enhance financing support for manufacturing enterprises and adapt to the new characteristics of economic structural changes [4][5]. Consumer Market Insights - The government has introduced measures to promote consumption, focusing on increasing residents' income and stabilizing the real estate market to boost consumer spending [6][8]. - Service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare, elderly care, and childcare, shows significant potential for growth due to existing supply-demand gaps [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - Expanding consumption subsidies to service sectors can guide residents towards upgrading their consumption structure and creating more jobs [8][9]. - Increasing government spending on public services and stabilizing asset prices can enhance consumer confidence and spending capacity [9][10].