Core Viewpoint - Guoquan is a leading brand in China's home dining food products, providing a wide range of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook ingredients through a nationwide franchise network, with a target of 10,150 stores by 2024 [1] Industry Overview - The home dining market in China has grown from 3.25 trillion yuan in 2018 to 5.62 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of approximately 14.7%. The food product segment has seen even faster growth, with a CAGR of 25.5%, reaching 367.3 billion yuan [1] - The industry is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 11.1% market share in 2022, while Guoquan leads with a 3.0% share [1] Business Model and Supply Chain - Guoquan employs a "single product, single factory" model, operating seven factories with a total capacity of 25,000 tons in 2022. The acquisition of Huading Cold Chain in 2024 will enhance its cold chain network across 290 cities [2] - The company focuses on refined operations and rapid product iteration based on consumer feedback, with a payback period for stores in provincial, prefectural, and county-level cities estimated at 12.2, 17.9, and 20.1 months, respectively [2] - The expansion plan aims for 20,000 stores, primarily targeting lower-tier markets, with single-store revenue recovering through popular products [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - Guoquan is projected to achieve total revenue of 73.3 billion yuan, 84.4 billion yuan, and 95.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.3%, 15.1%, and 13.6% [3] - The company is expected to realize net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.6 billion yuan during the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 78.9%, 19.4%, and 13.7% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22.6, 18.9, and 16.6 for the years 2025 to 2027, with a potential market value of 111 to 124 billion HKD, indicating a premium of 11% to 24% compared to the current valuation [3]
锅圈(02517.HK)：连锁化过万店 探索全供应链新模式