当前市场在没有利空的情况下就容易上涨，两地市场均强势上行，港股今天跳空涨1.33%。 昨日诟病大金融不给力，今天就卷土重来，首当其冲是保险类，市场判断二季度普通型人身险产品预定 利率研究值或低于2.25%。7月初已有公司及时跟进市场利率变化，结合自身经营情况调整产品定价， 部分公司将于8月底完成新旧产品切换。这导致保险负债成本缓释：助推险企提高权益配置占比，支撑 超长债收益率下行。另外，监管层对保险业的考核标准也进行了调整，意味着保险公司可以更灵活的配 置非银行类的资产，从而不断提升收益率。今天中国人寿(02628)、中国太保(02601)等均涨超5%。 而证券股的催化则来自于稳定币，当地时间7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞成、122票反对的结果 通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》，旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。该法案将提 交美国总统特朗普，预计将由特朗普签署成为法律。这意味着美国稳定币正式开启运营，全球最大稳定 币发行商Tether Holdings SA的首席执行官Paolo Ardoino日前宣布，该公司发行的USDT—全球最大的稳 定币—市值首次超过1600亿美元，并指出这是一个" ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Oriental Selection (01797) surged over 14% with the upcoming launch of a second sanitary napkin product, indicating growth potential in self-operated products [1] - AI application stocks rose in early trading, with Kingsoft Cloud (03896) and Innovation Works (02121) both up over 11%, and other companies like Kintor Pharmaceutical (01860) and Kingdee International (00268) also showing gains [1] - Yao Cai Securities (01428) increased over 8% as Ant Group actively develops stablecoins in Hong Kong, enhancing the prospects for Yao Cai's virtual asset business [1] - Meitu (01357) saw a rise of over 7% during trading, with institutions optimistic about the company's performance potential due to AI Agent product validation [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) initially rose over 8%, with a projected net profit increase of up to 180% year-on-year for the first half of the year, as institutions reassess the value of rare earth strategic metals [1] - NIO-SW (09866) increased over 4% as the pre-sale price of the L90 model exceeded expectations, with Morgan Stanley forecasting monthly sales to surpass 5,000 units [1] - Guoquan (02517) rose over 11% following an earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 180 million to 210 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% [1][2] Group 2: US Stocks - PepsiCo (PEP.US) rose 7.45% after Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, with EPS at $2.12, surpassing the forecast of $2.03, and revenue growing 1.0% year-on-year to $22.73 billion [3] - Lucid (LCID.US) soared 36.24% as it announced a partnership with Uber to launch a self-driving taxi fleet [3] - Abbott (ABT.US) fell over 8% due to Q3 guidance falling short of expectations and a downward revision of the annual profit forecast [3] - AI application software stocks saw gains, with Unity Software (U.US) rising over 12% at one point, and other companies like SoundHound AI (SOUN.US) and AppLovin (APP.US) also increasing [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) rose 3.38%, achieving a record high with Q2 EPS of $2.47, exceeding the forecast of $2.39, and revenue growing 44.4% year-on-year to $30.07 billion [4] - Oracle (ORCL.US) increased 3.09%, reaching a new high as it announced a $3 billion investment in AI and cloud infrastructure in Germany and the Netherlands over the next five years [4] - BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI.US) rose 15.45% ahead of its earnings report, with expectations of a loss of $0.07 per share but revenue projected to reach $40.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [4] Group 3: Drone and Streaming Stocks - Drone-related stocks strengthened, with Palladyne AI (PDYN.US) rising 31.4% and Joby Aviation (JOBY.US) increasing 8.51% amid U.S. Department of Commerce investigations into drone systems and key solar materials [5] - Netflix (NFLX.US) saw a slight decline of over 2% after reporting Q2 revenue of $11.079 billion, slightly above the forecast, but underperformed in the APAC and LATAM regions [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guoquan (02517) has released a positive profit forecast for H1 2025, indicating significant growth in net profit and core operating profit, driven by its community central kitchen strategy and operational efficiency improvements [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in H1 2025, representing an increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1]. - Core operating profit is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, up approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in H1 2024 [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its community central kitchen strategy, which focuses on expanding its instant retail store network and enhancing store operational efficiency through a multi-channel approach [1]. - The "explosive product" strategy has led to significant sales, with the 99 yuan beef tripe package achieving over 500 million yuan in sales in 2024 and receiving 6.21 billion exposures on Douyin [1]. Membership and Channel Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has registered 41.3 million members, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits reaching 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [1]. - The company has innovated its channel strategy by launching beef tripe hot pot packages through a multi-tiered Douyin account matrix, achieving a total exposure of over 6.21 billion on Douyin in 2024 [1]. Revenue Projections - The company anticipates revenues of 7.183 billion yuan, 8.036 billion yuan, and 9.08 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]. - Corresponding net profits are projected to be 340 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 463 million yuan for the same years, with PE valuations of 24x, 21x, and 18x [2].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 180-210 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111%-146% [1] - Core operating profit is also projected to be 180-210 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44%-68% [1] - Revenue is anticipated to grow in double digits during the off-peak season, driven by improved single-store operations and new product launches [1] Group 2 - The management's practical approach is evident in the company's long-term strategy, which includes expanding store numbers and optimizing net profit margins [2] - The company plans to open more stores in the second half of the year, particularly in rural areas, leveraging supply chain advantages [2] - Profit forecasts have been revised upward, with expected revenues of 7.29 billion, 8.38 billion, and 9.54 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13%, 15%, and 14% respectively [2]

机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/石狄 锅圈发布1H25 业绩预告，预计净利润1.8-2.1 亿元，同增111-146%，核心经营利润1.8-2.1 亿元，同增 44-68%。我们认为利润高增主因公司供应链持续提效，以及性价比爆款套餐策略成效显著，驱动店效 提升及拓店加速，叠加自采比例提升及费用端规模效应释放，带动盈利能力改善。公司高效供应链+自 主爆品研发+万店规模效应的优势日益显现，看好公司展店提速及品类扩张打开中长期成长空间，迈向 一站式"社区央厨"，维持"买入"评级。 同店与拓店双轮驱动，营收增长提速逻辑持续兑现我们预计公司H1 收入约实现中双位数增长，驱动因 素包括：1）同店方面，公司H1 以来推出烧烤集装箱套餐、99 元小龙虾套餐，升级毛肚自由套餐，有 力提振淡季销售，平滑淡旺季曲线，我们预计H1 同店提升约中高单位数。 2）展店方面，店效提升继续缩短加盟商回本周期，我们预计公司H1 稳步拓店，H2 旺季开店有望进一 步提速，且目前公司新店签约顺利，我们看好公司全年净增1000 家门店的目标顺利达成。3）伴随自有 工厂产能释放及客户拓展，我们预计公司2B 收入保持较快提升，进一步提振整体营收增速。 ...

加盟驱动规模跃升，产业链掌控力再进阶。上半年净利润及核心经营利润上升的主要原因系公司持续推 动收入增长，同时稳步优化运营效率。公司坚定推进社区央厨战略，通过多渠道、多场景，线上线下相 结合的方式，实现了即时零售门店网络的扩张和门店经营效能的提升。公司深挖下沉市场，通过低加盟 费实现规模的迅速扩张，强化龙头效应与规模效应，市占率持续提升。在实现规模迅速扩张的同时，不 断强化产业链的控制力，持续深化产供销一体化协同效应，采用"单品单厂"的策略，推动产业端布局， 加强科研投入，叠加公司自有的6 家食材生产工厂将成为未来公司发展的坚实基础。 城乡差异化运营，打造坚实护城河。公司通过城乡差异化布局，以"质价比+多元运营"的业态扎根县域 消费市场，通过整包散称的灵活定价策略、店外烧烤摊免费加工吸引客流、强化季节性商品运营，强化 乡镇店型核心竞争力，实现高周转；公司以"性价比+数智化"模式抢占家庭消费场景，通过会员体系强 化客户粘性、全时段经营突破营业时间限制、商品高性价比形成竞争壁垒等策略，牢牢把握社区餐食市 场，坪效持续提升。 机构：方正证券 研究员：王泽华/梁甜 事件：公司发布业绩预告，预计公司在2025H1 实现净 ...

2025年以来，餐饮行业仍面临一定压力和挑战，但部分餐饮龙头的经营表现不俗，使市场仍有结构性机会可以挖掘。锅圈正是其中值得留意的一位。 7月15日，锅圈发布盈喜公告，预计其2025年上半年实现净利润约1.8亿元至2.1亿元，同比增加约111％至146%；实现核心经营利润1.8亿元至2.1亿元，同比 增长约44%至68%，盈利能力呈现显著增强的态势。 翌日的资本市场也予以热烈回应，锅圈盘中股价一度突破20%，收涨7.29%。 来源：富途 在这背后，锅圈将业绩大幅增长归因于其持续推动收入增长、运营效率稳步优化；坚定社区央厨战略，通过多渠道多场景，线上线下相结合，实现了即时零 售门店网络的扩张和门店经营效能的提升。 从中我们亦能清晰地解读出多重积极信号：锅圈的社区央厨战略整体见效，而且正在兑现"有利润的增长"；即时零售重要新增长点培育顺利，或进一步转动 增长飞轮。其未来成长性和想象力同样随之打开。 具体不妨沿着即时零售这条业务线索，来梳理一下核心逻辑。 由此，锅圈未来有望随着即时零售的快速发展持续实现业务突破。 2）加强业务协同，在更多层面推动门店规模与效能双升 更开阔的视角下，即时零售重要新增长点的培育也将发挥出 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The report highlights that Guoquan (锅圈) is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan in H1 2024 [4] - The core operating profit for Guoquan is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, up approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in the same period last year, driven by revenue growth and operational efficiency improvements [4] - Guoquan continues to implement its community central kitchen strategy, expanding its instant retail store network and enhancing store operational efficiency through a multi-channel approach [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - Jitu Express (极兔速递) has seen a significant increase in business volume, achieving 1.69 billion parcels in Q2 2025, a year-on-year growth of 65.9%, benefiting from the e-commerce demand in Southeast Asia and effective pricing strategies [8][9] - The company is expected to maintain its aggressive pricing strategy to capture more market share, with a projected revenue growth of 16% to 149.94 billion yuan by 2027 [11] - The report indicates that the demand for AI chips in China is anticipated to reach approximately 50 billion USD in the next two to three years, with Nvidia's H20 chip resuming supply in China potentially boosting its market presence [14][18] Group 3: Collaborations and Partnerships - Shengqu Games (盛趣游戏) has entered into a deep cooperation agreement with Tianqiong Interactive to explore the multi-dimensional value of the "Legend" IP, which is expected to enhance the ecosystem of these classic IPs in the mobile and film sectors [22] - The partnership allows Tianqiong Interactive exclusive rights to various derivative products related to the "Legend" and "Legend World" games, while Shengqu Games will focus on developing official products to improve user experience [22] Group 4: Policy and Urban Development Insights - The report discusses the central urban work conference held in July 2025, emphasizing the need for cities to transition from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality, aligning with the "People's City" concept [24][25] - It outlines the importance of innovation, livability, environmental sustainability, resilience, and cultural preservation in building "good cities" that meet the aspirations of the people [25][29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.8 to 2.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111% to 146% [8] - Revenue is projected to grow by double digits in the first half of 2025, driven by effective single-store operations and new product launches [8] - The management's practical approach and long-term strategy of expanding store numbers and optimizing net profit margins are being validated by the company's performance [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is forecasted to be 6,100 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 9,543 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 239.64 million yuan in 2023 to 557.15 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate of 18.21% in the final year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.09 yuan in 2023 to 0.20 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 3.29 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 8,236.17 million HKD [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 34.54, expected to decrease to 14.86 by 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics [1] Operational Highlights - The company is focusing on enhancing single-store revenue through new product offerings and marketing strategies, which have shown positive results even during the off-peak season [8] - The management's commitment to expanding the store network, particularly in rural areas, is expected to leverage supply chain advantages and drive growth [8]

智通财经APP获悉，港股今日冲高回落，三大指数午后集体转跌。截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.29%或72.36 点，报24517.76点，全日成交额为2589.51亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.18%，报8861.39点；恒生科技指数 跌0.24%，报5418.4点。 申万宏源表示，持续看好港股以及A股市场的投资机会，在未来全球金融秩序重构的过程中，中国香港 将扮演重要角色，港股优质资产繁荣度预计不断提升，成为本土在岸资金+全球新秩序下的核心资本市 场。 蓝筹股表现 安踏体育(02020)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨2.28%，报91.85港元，成交额13.2亿港元，贡献恒指4.55点。 安踏体育公布，2025年二季度，安踏品牌、FILA品牌流水分别同比增长低单位数、中单位数，所有其 他品牌流水同比增长50-55%。上半年， 安踏、FILA、其他品牌零售金额同比分别取得中单位数、高单 位数、60-65%的正增长。 其他蓝筹股方面，快手-W(01024)涨2.13%，报69.6港元，贡献恒指6.9点；携程集团-S(09961 )涨1.59%， 报498.2港元，贡献恒指3.36点；申洲国际(02313)跌2.75%，报56.6港 ...