港股研究丨公司深度丨锅圈（2517.HK） [Table_Title] 锅圈深度研究：万店社区央厨，扬帆再度启航 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 范晨昊 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490519100003 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 锅圈是中国领先的一站式在家吃饭餐食产品品牌。锅圈食汇的产品组合覆盖火锅产品、烧烤产 品、饮品、一人食、即烹餐包、生鲜、西餐及零食八大类别，满足消费者多样化的用餐场景。 凭借广泛的社区门店网络和强大的数字化供应链能力，锅圈食汇实现了广泛的消费者触达。同 时，公司还开发了线上销售渠道，包括锅圈 APP、微信小程序及提供外卖到家服务的第三方平 台。 %% %% research.95579.com 2 锅圈（2517.HK） cjzqdt11111 %% %% [Table_Title2] 锅圈深度研究：万店社区央厨，扬帆再度启航 [Table_Summary2] 锅圈：从火锅食 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading one-stop solution brand for home dining in China, ranking first among all retailers. It focuses on hot pot and barbecue meal categories, providing diverse, high-quality, and cost-effective products through a franchise model, establishing a significant scale advantage with a community central kitchen concept. After experiencing operational fluctuations during the pandemic, the company has innovated its store model, implemented a best-selling product strategy, and strengthened its membership ecosystem, leading to a recovery in same-store sales and a return to growth. Looking ahead, the company is expected to achieve sustainable growth through "quality supply, cost-effectiveness, and food equity" [3][11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its sales network from B2B to B2C since its establishment in 2015, growing from 1,441 stores in early 2020 to 10,150 stores by the end of 2024, covering all provinces in China [27][28]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has seen rapid growth, with a market size increasing from 3,248.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 5,615.6 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 14.7%. The proportion of home dining meal products is expected to rise from 4.55% in 2022 to 13.22% by 2027 [11][49][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers a three-pronged competitive advantage through products, channels, and supply chain integration. Its products are generally priced 60%-80% lower than social dining channels and about 20% lower than supermarket retail channels. The average profit margin for franchisees is between 8%-10%, indicating a healthy and sustainable model [11][12][14]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 71.2 billion RMB, 82.4 billion RMB, and 95.2 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 10.1%, 15.6%, and 15.6%. The gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 22.4% by 2027. The core operating net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over three years [12][16].

Core Insights - The chairman of Guoquan Food, Yang Mingchao, led a team to conduct an on-site investigation in Longyao County, Hebei Province, and participated in a cooperation meeting with local leaders to discuss future collaboration directions [1][3] - Guoquan Food is committed to further expanding its food industrial park layout across the country, having already established three parks in Henan, Sichuan, and Hubei, with plans for more in various regions [4] Group 1 - Guoquan Food's chairman praised Longyao County's business environment and food industry scale, highlighting its rich agricultural resources and established food processing industry, particularly in convenience foods and seasonings [3] - Longyao County is seizing opportunities to develop its food processing industry, focusing on industrial upgrades, technological innovation, and green development to create a leading regional industrial cluster [3] - The county government is committed to supporting Guoquan Food in establishing a supply chain center in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, ensuring a favorable business environment and implementing various enterprise-friendly policies [3] Group 2 - Guoquan Food has plans to conduct further investigations in key regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Greater Bay Area, aiming to establish over 10 food industrial parks nationwide [4] - The company aims to create a food industry matrix that covers major regional cuisines and primary ingredient production areas across the country [4]

Core Insights - The visit to Guoquan Group and its ecosystem enterprises by nearly fifty participants from the "Delicious China Innovation Camp" aimed to explore business operations and core products, seeking collaboration opportunities in the food and beverage sector [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Guoquan Group operates a comprehensive supply chain platform integrating "platform + network + channel + industry + finance," covering all provinces and regions in China except Hong Kong, Macau, and Tibet [3]. - Key enterprises in the Guoquan ecosystem include Huading Cold Chain Technology, He Yi Meat Industry, Dai Xia Ji Food, Chengming Food, and Wildfire Barbecue, each specializing in different food products and standards [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - The company emphasizes a "comprehensive cost leadership" growth logic and utilizes multiple channels, including iGuoquan and Douyin, to create popular products like "Mao Du Freedom" [3]. - The "integrated supply and production" model is seen as a crucial support for building a deeper competitive moat and is aligned with the company's future development direction [3]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Opportunities - The visit facilitated discussions on various topics, including empowering ecosystem enterprises, restaurant supply chain cooperation, and digital development, leading to preliminary agreements on product customization and channel collaboration [5]. - The event provided significant business expansion opportunities and deepened the understanding of Guoquan among industry entrepreneurs, with a focus on exploring new paths for food industry development [5].

Company Overview - The company is a leading and rapidly growing home meal products brand in China, focusing on ready-to-eat, ready-to-heat, and ready-to-cook products, particularly hotpot and barbecue items [3]. - The product portfolio includes eight categories: hotpot products, barbecue products, beverages, solo-dining meals, ready-to-cook meal kits, fresh produce, western cuisines, and snacks [4]. - Revenue is primarily derived from sales to franchisees, with no reliance on franchise fees, indicating a strong franchise business model [5]. - The company aims to become the go-to brand for dining at home in China, targeting diverse consumer needs across urban and remote areas [10]. - The company is well-positioned to capture significant growth potential in China's home meal products market [4]. Operational Efficiency - The management emphasizes high-quality food ingredients and operational efficiency from production to retail sales, ensuring product quality and safety [8]. - The company leverages a robust supply chain and digital management system to enhance operational efficiency [6]. - The extensive network of community-based stores supports the company's strategy to provide affordable meal options to consumers [3]. - The Group is committed to providing "tasty, convenient and value-for-money" one-stop home meal solutions while enhancing digitalization capabilities and supply chain efficiency [26]. - The Group's operational measures in 2024 are designed to consolidate store operation capabilities and enhance overall efficiency [27]. Market Expansion and Strategy - Future strategies may include further market expansion and product diversification to meet evolving consumer preferences [4]. - The company is focused on expanding its market presence in the PRC, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [19]. - The Group plans to expand its sales network into low-tier markets, enhancing market penetration and capturing more market share [68][70]. - The Group aims to cultivate entrepreneurial franchisees and enhance their sales growth through a diversified product portfolio and online sales channels [69]. - The Group intends to explore overseas markets, initially targeting regions like Hong Kong and Southeast Asia to enhance global recognition and sales growth [79]. Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the Group recorded revenue of RMB 6,469.8 million, representing an increase of 6.2% over the last year [33]. - The Group achieved a gross profit of RMB 1,416.8 million, with a gross profit margin of 21.9%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [33]. - The net profit for the year was RMB 241.2 million, reflecting a decrease of approximately 8.4% compared to the previous year [33]. - Revenue from sales of meal products and related products accounted for 97.6% of total revenue in 2024, increasing by approximately 6.3% from RMB 5,940.5 million in 2023 to RMB 6,312.2 million in 2024 [88]. - The Group's profit for the year decreased from RMB 263.4 million in 2023 to RMB 241.2 million in 2024, reflecting a decline in profit attributable to owners of the parent [84]. Product Development - The Group launched 412 new SKUs related to hot pot and barbecue, enriching its product matrix to cater to diverse consumer preferences [32]. - The Group's strategic focus on optimizing product mix and enhancing store operations has been pivotal in adapting to changing consumer behaviors [45]. - R&D investment will be increased to optimize existing products and create new offerings with a high quality-price ratio, responding to consumer feedback [78]. - The Group's supply chain advantages and product strength are key to realizing brand value and market success [28]. - The Group continues to upgrade and innovate store formats in preparation for future development [27]. Digital and Online Sales - The company has developed online sales channels, including the Guoquan APP and partnerships with third-party delivery platforms like Meituan and Ele.me, enhancing consumer reach [6]. - The Group's online sales networks, including the Guoquan APP and Douyin, achieved over 6.21 billion exposures in 2024, with specific hotpot sets generating sales exceeding RMB 500 million [54]. - The Group will continue to innovate its sales channels, leveraging platforms like Douyin and WeChat mini-programs to reach consumers and expand its member base [74]. - The Group's membership system and product portfolio optimization are aimed at improving operational efficiency and establishing a comprehensive network of instant retail stores [27]. - The Group's omni-channel sales network has established the largest one-stop home meal products retail store network in China, improving brand awareness and consumer insights [42]. Corporate Governance and Management - The company adheres to the Corporate Governance Code as set out in the Listing Rules [19]. - The company has a controlling shareholder structure that includes multiple entities and individuals [20]. - The management team is focused on strategic business planning and market expansion, with Mr. Liu Zhengzheng involved in evaluating major decisions [166]. - The board comprises members with diverse backgrounds in finance, law, and catering, ensuring comprehensive oversight and strategic direction [186]. - The independent directors are responsible for supervising the board and providing independent judgment to enhance corporate governance [180]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the Group aims to consolidate its market leadership by exploring market potential and innovating in store operations and membership strategies [35]. - The Group's strategic focus on AI technology innovation is expected to drive opportunities for industry transformation [26]. - The company is committed to continuous improvement in its financial strategies and operational efficiency [190]. - The management team is actively pursuing professional development to enhance their skills and knowledge in the industry [193]. - The company aims to leverage its experienced team to drive growth and market expansion in the coming years [192].

Core Viewpoint - The company is exploring more possibilities in the "home dining" sector, focusing on the prepared food market and expanding its product offerings and store formats to enhance customer experience and sales growth [1][2]. Group 1: Business Strategy - In April of the previous year, the company announced a new strategic positioning as a "community central kitchen," heavily investing in the prepared food segment, extending from hot pot to barbecue, and aiming to cover all three meals a day [2]. - The company plans to integrate its supply chain by establishing and acquiring three new food production plants in 2024, focusing on freshwater products, shrimp, and sour soup products [3]. - The company is undergoing retail transformation, including new store formats targeting agricultural markets and 24-hour self-service and delivery options [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's overall performance rebounded in 2024, with revenue increasing by 6.2% year-on-year to 6.47 billion yuan [4]. - The "99 yuan free-flowing hot pot package" sold on Douyin significantly boosted performance, leading to a 14.15% year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of the year, with a 42.77% increase compared to the first half [5]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.9% due to increased spending on brand building and sales channels, while core operating profit margin slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 4.8% [6]. Group 3: Market Expansion - The company faced challenges in 2023, with a revenue decline of approximately 15% to 6.094 billion yuan, despite opening over 1,000 new stores [7]. - A new expansion cycle is set to begin, targeting the lower-tier markets with plans to open 10,000 new stores over the next five years, focusing on newly optimized store formats for rural areas [8]. - The company plans to enter Southeast Asia by 2025, with the first batch of stores expected to open [9]. Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company aims for a conservative growth strategy over the next two years, focusing on improving store operations and customer frequency rather than opening new stores [10]. - A significant emphasis will be placed on member operations to increase customer spending and frequency, with the average spending of high-recharge members being twice that of low-recharge members [11]. - The company is also looking to enhance its product offerings, including ice cream, beverages, and healthy soup bases, to complement its hot pot and barbecue offerings [12]. Group 5: Operational Efficiency - The company plans to leverage AI and smart retail technologies to improve operational efficiency and enhance customer experience [12][26]. - The company is developing a community-centric model that integrates store, warehouse, and distribution capabilities to ensure high turnover and efficient operations [21]. - The company is also focusing on regional supply chain efficiency and digitalization to support its overseas expansion plans [20].

Core Insights - The rise of ready-to-eat meals in the consumer market is driven by rational consumption trends and the "lazy economy" resulting from fast-paced lifestyles, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [1] - The company, Guoquan, reported a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a core operating profit of 311 million yuan, up 3.1%, showcasing robust financial growth [1] - Guoquan announced a cash dividend plan of approximately 200 million yuan, representing a 39.8% increase compared to the previous year, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Guoquan achieved a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan and a core operating profit of 311 million yuan, both showing positive growth [1] - The company’s cash dividend plan of around 200 million yuan indicates a strong financial position and a focus on returning value to investors [1] Store Innovation and Channel Expansion - Guoquan has focused on store innovation by targeting lower-tier markets and extending its service scenarios, resulting in the addition of 287 new stores in rural areas in 2024 [2] - The company has implemented smart retail initiatives, including 24-hour operations and the integration of IoT and AI technologies to enhance customer service and reduce costs [2] - Guoquan's online strategy has led to significant sales, with a notable product generating over 500 million yuan in sales within seven months, and a total online exposure of 6.21 billion times [5] Supply Chain Management - The company emphasizes a "single product, single factory" approach to enhance efficiency and maintain quality, with six dedicated production facilities for various food items [9] - Guoquan collaborates with 266 suppliers to establish a nationwide logistics network, ensuring efficient supply chain management and cost control [9] - The integration of digital systems for supply chain monitoring allows for dynamic inventory management, optimizing operations from procurement to retail [8] Future Outlook - Guoquan plans to continue expanding its sales network and deepen its market penetration, particularly in lower-tier markets, while enhancing its membership ecosystem [9] - The company aims to leverage its supply chain efficiency and store network to support its growth strategies, including instant retail and international expansion [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese catering industry is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with some companies like Guoquan Food demonstrating resilience and adaptability, making them potential investment opportunities [1] Financial Performance - Guoquan Food achieved a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a gross profit of 1.42 billion yuan, up 4.9%, maintaining a gross margin of 21.9% [2] - The company's core operating profit reached 311 million yuan, reflecting a 3.1% increase year-on-year [2] - Cash reserves increased by 9.8% to 2.125 billion yuan, while the debt ratio decreased to 3.2%, indicating enhanced financial safety [2] Operational Improvements - Guoquan Food has improved operational quality across channels, membership, supply chain, and inventory, enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness [3] - The company maintained a scale of 10,000 offline stores and successfully expanded online channels, selling over 5 million units of the "Free Hot Pot Set" through online platforms, generating over 500 million yuan in sales [3] - Membership numbers surged by 48.2% to 41.33 million, with member savings reaching 990 million yuan, a 36.6% increase [3] Strategic Growth Initiatives - Guoquan Food plans to continue expanding its presence in lower-tier markets, enhance membership operations, and strengthen its supply chain [6] - The company aims to embrace IoT, big data, and AI technologies to develop instant retail and explore overseas markets, leveraging a localized supply chain model [6][8] - Future plans include opening 10,000 new stores over the next five years, focusing on community and rural areas [8] Community and Brand Development - The company is enhancing its brand reputation through community engagement and direct consumer relationships, with plans to launch its own social media content [8] - Guoquan Food is innovating product offerings, including desserts and beverages, while focusing on core categories like soup bases [8] International Expansion - The overseas strategy combines "regional supply chains" with "Chinese flavors," targeting densely populated areas with many communities [15][16] - The company is in the exploratory phase of entering international markets, particularly in areas with significant Chinese populations [16]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The food sector experienced significant movement, with Guoquan's stock rising over 15% and a trading volume of 1.27 billion yuan [1] - The "Two New" policy has led to an 18% year-on-year increase in investment in equipment and tools, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4% [1] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment, focusing on improving domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to drive economic growth [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Guoquan's 2024 annual performance report indicates a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.417 billion yuan and a gross margin of 21.9% [2] - The company's core operating profit reached 311 million yuan, reflecting a 3.1% year-on-year growth, and cash reserves increased by 9.8% to 2.125 billion yuan [2] - Guoquan announced a dividend of approximately 200 million yuan, a 39.8% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady expansion in its store network and the effectiveness of its explosive product strategy is becoming evident [1][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.47 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 231 million yuan, a decrease of 4% [5][8]. - The company plans to continue focusing on explosive product combinations and enhancing its supply chain efficiency to improve profitability [6][7]. Summary by Sections Basic Data - Current stock price is HKD 2.01, with a total market capitalization of HKD 55.2 billion and total shares outstanding of 2,747.4 million [2]. Financial Performance - In the second half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.80 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 145 million yuan, a 10% increase [5][8]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.90%, primarily due to the increased volume of low-margin products [6]. Market Strategy - As of the end of 2024, the company had 10,150 stores, with a net increase of 287 stores in rural areas [7]. - The pre-paid card amount increased by 37% in 2024, indicating a successful membership strategy [7]. Profit Forecast - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.09, 0.10, and 0.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 18, and 16 [8][11].