KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-10-28 05:16Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, with the wholesale price for 500ml bottles falling below 1700 yuan for the first time, indicating a broader decline in the liquor market and raising concerns about the financial health of Guizhou Moutai and the industry as a whole [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has decreased to 1690 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day, marking a new low since its market introduction [1][2]. - The price has seen a cumulative decline of over 31% from its initial prices of 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan [1]. - The price trajectory has shown a consistent downward trend since June 2025, with significant drops below key psychological thresholds [2]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan [3]. - Despite maintaining growth, these figures represent the lowest growth rates for the company in a decade, with both liquor and series liquor segments experiencing declines in gross margins [3]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with a reported 5.8% decline in production among major liquor enterprises in the first half of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [3][4]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, and 59.7% report reduced operating profits, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures [4]. - The number of large-scale liquor enterprises has decreased to 887, a reduction of over 100 companies year-on-year, leading to increased industry concentration [4]. Market Dynamics - The traditional peak consumption seasons have failed to reverse the market downturn, with sales during the dual festivals (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) declining by about 20% year-on-year [4]. - Major liquor companies are actively seeking new market opportunities through product differentiation and enhanced value propositions, as seen with Guizhou Moutai's recent product launches [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect the industry adjustment to continue, with some suggesting that the current phase represents a "supply clearing" bottom adjustment stage [4][5]. - The overall market demand remains weak, with ongoing pressures on business consumption and a cautious outlook for the third-quarter performance of liquor companies [6].